Overall, the work done so far results in: Outside: Mrazek (3.8 x 2), 25th overallIn: Murray (4.7 x 2), 38th overall, 2023 third, 2024 seventh There will be plenty of time to discuss Matt Murray at goaltending and watch how he plays. Honestly, goaltenders are magic beans, and you could convince me one way or the other about Murray’s rebounding prospects in a Leafs sweater. He’s still pretty young (28), had major league success as a starter and playoff hitter, and there are some signs – if you squint – that he was still capable when healthy. On the other side of the coin, Murray has struggled to stay healthy, and it’s fair to question his ability to handle a rookie’s workload. Over the past three seasons, he is tied for 56th in save percentage among the 64 goalies who have played at least 50 games. If there’s one place where past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, it’s targeting. That being said, Murray basically played himself out of the league at one point. How the bet will play out will only be known in time, and for the purposes of analyzing today’s movement, is secondary. Almost every goaltending possibility involved a bet. Jack Campbell never played a 50 game NHL season. Neither Ville Husso nor Alexander Georgiev. Darcy Kuemper has done it twice. John Gibson has been on a downward trend for three seasons. Marc-Andre Fleury never hit the open market. Netminders like Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov are mystery boxes. Now, based on age, career records, hits and recent play, I think there were safer bets? Yes. Maybe Murray will be out and all of this will be irrelevant a year from now. If he does, Kyle Dubas will look like one of the smartest players at the poker table. If he doesn’t, Murray won’t be the only player in trouble. Value is the real problem. The Leafs stopped short of getting Murray, and for good reason: Virtually nobody in the league wanted him on his current contract, and the other team that did (Buffalo) was on his no-trade list. Ottawa is a small market team that has two goaltenders ahead of him on the depth chart, and Murray is expected to make $15 million in real-world cash over the next two seasons. Not even a week ago, Ottawa was ready to package him and the seventh overall pick back to pick 16. You could argue that the Leafs were desperate for a goalie, but really, this was a game of chicken and the Leafs blinked first. This is not the first time this management team has managed to waste a leveraged position. The Leafs took that bet at the price of 25% salary retention, a third and a seventh. Even if it pans out, the value gathered here was poor. They didn’t give themselves a big enough salary cushion as insurance, and they didn’t sweeten the pot with assets of significant enough value (eg offsetting a player or higher draft picks). In fact, I can safely say that this is the least calculated move of this regime’s tenure. Kyle Dubas has not protected himself at all here. It’s a swing for the fences.
The Maple Leafs’ cap situation ahead of free agency
Photo: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese The Leafs will now head into free agency with the following roster (and holes), which they have about $8 million in cap space to fill: Bunting – Matthews – MarnerKerfoot – Tavares – NylanderRobertson – Kampf Rielly – BrodieMuzzin – HollGiordano – Liljegren Murray The $8 million should be used to:
Mark Pierre Engvall Sign Rasmus Sandin Sign at least three more strikers (or promote from within, I didn’t include the Kyle Cliffords, Wayne Simmonds, Alex Steeves of the world) Sign a backup goalkeeper (or promote from within)
That’s an average of $1.3 million per player, and it’s certainly a number that Engvall will specifically surpass. Last year, a 26-year-old Teddy Blueger – the same age Engvall is now – was coming off a seven-goal, 22-point season in just 43 games and signed for $2.2 million per year over two years. Engvall – coming off a 15-goal, 35-point season in 78 games – draws quite the comparison. In his first three years in the NHL, Blueger posted a career 0.39 points per game, while Engvall is at 0.37 at the same point in his career. After signing Engvall, the Leafs could be looking for just under $6 million to fill, at least, three forward spots, a backup goaltender and bring back Sandin. This is just to fill out the roster. How will they improve the team?
The internal picks and free agency trade bucket
Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports I certainly wouldn’t pay Ilya Mikheyev the nearly $5 million he reportedly wants, but he was very good last season. It is possible to back the emergence of Nick Robertson as the season progresses, but these are very different players. Mikheyev was fourth among Leafs forwards in short ice time per game last season and was a key member of the team’s control line. Robertson projects as an offensive scorer. It would be disappointing if the offseason essentially boils down to signing a bunch of depth forwards, taking a huge gamble in net, and doing nothing significant to demonstrably improve the roster. So what is left at this point? Elliotte Friedman just reported that the Leafs are interested in Zach Aston-Reese and/or the possible return of Denis Malgin from Switzerland. This isn’t going to move the needle much, but in the case of Aston-Reese – or a Tyler Motte guy as well – I think there’s value in adding a legit, proven NHL forward to anchor their fourth line while providing some screening value and physicality. Adding a solid player makes it much more palatable for the Leafs to pair a Marlie — like an Alex Steeves — to protect him and provide him with some veteran security. The question for the fourth line – assuming they sign an Aston-Reese guy (which I guess is likely and is something I’d support) – is whether Wayne Simmonds and/or Kyle Clifford are also in the mix. My guess is they don’t have the nerve to send Simmonds down. I’m assuming he’ll be in the lineup to start the season, even though he played out of the playoff lineup and is getting worse right now. There’s no cap space to change the roster (I’ll reiterate that Alex Kerfoot – coming off a breakout season, not as a playmaker, a year away from a UFA – is an easy player to sell high right now), the main thing the Leafs can really do to look for upside is explore the unqualified market. There the team added David Kampf last summer with good results. There are some interesting candidates. Kampf’s former teammate Dylan Strome is getting a lot of attention in the free agent market, but it’s another former teammate of his, Dominik Kubalik, that I’m particularly interested in. He has 116 points in 202 NHL games, including a 30-goal season in his rookie year. He is 6’2, has a great shot and can play with skill players. Over three seasons in Chicago, Kampf and Kubalik actually played over 430 minutes together at 5-5. They were essentially even in the corsi, just above the water at Fenwick, outscoring their opponents by three and controlling nearly 55% of expected goals despite a 32% offensive zone face-off rate. And that’s on a horrible Chicago team. Kubalik is a very different player to Mikheyev, but he is arguably a better scorer and has the same size. Kubalik is basically a good finisher, but he doesn’t drive much. I can imagine a seamless fit along with Kampf and Engvall on a cheap contract. He’s also a reliable second half-wall unit power-play option to replace Jason Spezza with his bomb. This type of addition – to go along with an Aston-Reese guy (natural grinder and penalty killer) and bringing back Engvall – gives them four reliable NHLers (including Kampf, of course) in the bottom six and two spots for the Marlies/ Wayne. Simmonds/Kyle Clifford to compete. Is it sexy? No, but there is potential for upside with a good floor to protect the team’s perspective. There are other unqualified players worth considering. The Leafs could consider bringing back Ondrej Kase at a reduced pace, though personally I’d rather see them get players they can trust to stay healthy. Jonathan Dahlen showed promise on a very bad San Jose team last season in his rookie year and was left undrafted by a brand new GM. There is potential here. Nicolas Aube-Kubel was a regular for the Stanley Cup champions during the regular season and appeared in 14 playoff games. Fits Aston-Reese/Motte. Brett Howden is only 24 years old, can play center and had 20 points in 47 games (he’s also 6’2). He could be a cheap 4C with some reasonable upside to help anchor the Leafs fourth line. And then there is the question of the second goalkeeper. Ideally, Erik Kallgren is the team’s third-string goaltender (if the past few seasons have taught us anything, it’s that the Leafs’ third-stringer will play some games). Ilya Samsonov went undrafted out of Washington, and while he’s struggled recently, he’s only 25 years old with nearly 100 games to his name. Eric Comrie doesn’t have Samsonov’s experience, but he just turned 27 and was good last season with a .920 save percentage in 19 games on a fairly average Winnipeg team. This type of younger age gambling with some advantages is the type of compensation that is affordable, exciting and raises the floor for…
