And as the Kremlin learned the hard way during the failed siege of Kiev, the more territory that is occupied, the more there is to defend against Ukrainian infantry attacks. To that end, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in May that the country is now training a standing army of one million people. Meanwhile, Russia still has a lot to achieve in Donbass alone. Illia Ponomarenko, respected defense correspondent for the Kyiv Independent newspaper, points out that so far, none of Ukraine’s “major military groups” in the region have been destroyed or even surrounded. Other targets essential to control of Donbas – including Sloviansk, nearby Bakhmut and a line of towns stretching 100 miles south to Mariinka, near the separatist-held city of Donetsk – are now “fortresses” that will not fall easily. Finally, there is the cost in human lives. Ukraine’s casualties are estimated at around 20,000, with Russia up to twice as many. More important than the numbers, though, is each nation’s ability to absorb the pain politically. While Ukraine’s deaths have caused distress, its population still seems reeling from the war. There were no protests and few influential voices demanding concessions to end the bloodshed. Nor, admittedly, did it exist in Russia. But in a country that no longer tolerates dissent, it’s hard to be sure how much resentment is simmering. For every Russian soldier who has not returned home, others return home wounded or disillusioned. Coupled with sanctions hitting living standards, there’s no telling when a smoldering discontent might flare up. “The next few months will be a turning point,” said Mr Olvera, who is currently back in the US. “I expect Ukraine to grow stronger, while Russia will grow weaker, with the economy in ruins, sanctions undermining its military capabilities, and issues of morale and discipline becoming even more serious.” How much more of the Donbass will be in Russian hands by then remains to be seen. But in a vote of confidence in Ukraine’s capabilities, Mr Olvera plans to return to help defend it. “The Ukrainians did much better than I expected,” he said. “As hard as it’s been so far, it’s encouraged me to come back.”
