Home to 280,000 people before the February 24 invasion of Ukraine, Kherson was the first major population center in the war-torn country to fall to Russian troops, and its Russian-appointed administrators have stepped up efforts to erase all signs of Ukrainian rule. . They issued Russian passports to residents, introduced Russian banks, brought in Russian mobile phone companies and made the ruble legal currency, replacing the Ukrainian hryvnia. But with the war days away from entering its sixth month, Ukrainian authorities are signaling that the time is fast approaching when its army will try to retake the city it captured and drive out its Russian occupiers. President Volodymr Zelenskyy and members of his government urged citizens to stay off the streets. “I know for sure that there should not be women and children there and that they should not become human shields,” Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said recently.
Kherson key to both sides: retired colonel
Over the past six weeks, sporadic Ukrainian offensives have disappeared into Russian-controlled territory in the country’s south, allowing its troops to reach within 20 kilometers of Kherson. “Forty-four settlements have already been liberated in Kherson region,” Dmytro Butry, the acting head of the region’s military administration, told an online news conference in Kyiv on Thursday. “The situation there is difficult,” he continued, claiming that the damage from Russian bombing is “massive” and that homes, schools and many other buildings have been damaged. Ukrainian soldiers board a tank near a front line in the Donbas region on Wednesday. While Russia is waging war on a vast 1,000-kilometer front, most of its forces are concentrated in Ukraine’s Donbass region, where both sides are locked in a vicious struggle of attrition. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters) However, how far the counteroffensive goes, and how much strength Ukraine’s military can muster after weeks of fierce fighting in the southeastern Donbass region, remains unclear. Retired Ukrainian colonel Serhiy Grabsky argues that the fate of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war depends on his military occupation of Kherson — and Ukraine’s ability to wrest it. “This location will open the door to liberate the entire country and end all of Russia’s strategic objectives,” said Grabsky, who served in several international roles over a 28-year career, including as a military adviser to Iraq. . government. He said Russia’s push from Kherson would end any threat to Ukrainian cities such as Mykolaiv and Odesa and put Russian military installations on the Crimean peninsula close to Ukraine’s new Western weapons – including US HIMARS missile launchers long range. Serhiy Grabsky, a retired Ukrainian army colonel and military analyst, says pushing Russia out of Kherson would end any threat to Ukrainian cities such as Mykolaiv and Odesa and put Russian military installations on the Crimean peninsula close to to Ukraine’s new western weapons. (Serhiy Grabsky) “We could put all exits from Crimea under ‘fire control,’ as we say,” Grabski said. While Russia is waging war along a vast 1,000-kilometer front, most of its forces are concentrated in the Donbas region, where both sides are locked in a vicious struggle of attrition. Russia has gained territory, including the cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, but at a significant cost in the lives and equipment of its soldiers.
HIMARS surpasses Russia’s arsenal
Grabsky said the southern front, which includes Kherson, is thin, with Ukrainian and Russian forces more or less evenly spread. That’s why, he said, Ukrainian commanders see an opportunity to concentrate their forces and break through Russian lines. “I’m absolutely optimistic,” he told CBC News. WATCHES | Residents of Kherson describe harsh living conditions under Russian control:
Residents of the Russian-controlled city of Kherson describe harsh conditions
Tens of thousands of residents of the Russian-controlled city of Kherson in southern Ukraine have fled since the start of Moscow’s invasion. Those who remain say there are consequences for defying Russia. Estimates of Russian military casualties since February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine, range from a high of nearly 37,000 dead – as claimed by Ukraine – to closer to 15,000 or 20,000 based on estimates from the United States and Britain . However, Ukraine has also suffered heavy casualties, including up to 200 soldiers killed daily in combat at the height of the fighting for Severodonetsk, where Russia eventually triumphed. An M142 High Mobility Artillery Missile System (HIMARS) is fired at an undisclosed location in Ukraine, in this still image taken from an undated social media video uploaded on June 24. The US has provided Ukraine with eight HIMARS so far, with four more to come. (Pavlo Narozhnyy/Reuters) Instead of a full-scale assault on Kherson, Grabsky said he expected Ukraine to follow up with a “gentle push” of its forces, to choke off supply routes to the city and eventually cut it off. Recently, Ukraine has been using the High Mobility Artillery Missile System, or HIMARS, to disrupt Russian supply centers deep inside occupied territory, including many ammunition depots. The US has provided Ukraine with eight HIMARS so far, with four more to follow. The missiles are capable of hitting targets more than 80 kilometers away with pinpoint accuracy — far beyond the capabilities of anything Russia has in its arsenal. Footage released by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense showed what it claims was the elimination by precision fire from HIMARS of a Russian ammunition dump in Nova Kakhovka, near Kherson. And earlier in the week, Ukraine claimed the same system struck a Russian command post, killing several senior officers. A screen shot from video distributed by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry shows what it claims was the explosion of a Russian ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka, near Kherson, on Monday. (Ministry of Defense of Ukraine) If Ukraine can launch a counteroffensive in the south that leads to the liberation of Russian territory, it will be the first such success for Ukraine’s military since the February invasion. By comparison, when Russian troops were driven out of the Kiev region and parts of northern Ukraine around Kharkiv in April, it was after their own offensives failed. Other military observers, however, remain cautious about predicting a Ukrainian success in Kherson.
Russia’s “attrition” campaign is effective
Retired four-star US Air Force general Philip Breedlove, who served as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe from 2013-16, told BBC radio this week that Russia’s “severe, indiscriminate” campaign to destroy the military and political infrastructure of Ukraine was effective. However, he said, Ukraine could probably still bring a sizable army against Kherson. “They don’t have the massive manpower that Russia has throughout their country, but I would tell you that Ukraine has far more experienced soldiers than Russia. That’s to Ukraine’s advantage,” Breedlove said. A former Ukrainian command center appears near Izyum in Eastern Ukraine. The region, which borders Donbass, has been the site of fierce battles of attrition, with control of the land passing between Russian and Ukrainian forces. (Chris Brown/CBC) Rob Lee, an analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research in Philadelphia who has followed the course of the conflict closely, suggests that Ukraine will need more help of all kinds from the West if an attack is to succeed. “Kyiv will likely require a more robust training program and ammunition if it wants to recapture a large enough area,” he tweeted. Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, said it appeared that Ukrainian commanders had decided they had more to gain by focusing on Kherson than by counterattacking in the Donbas, where Ukraine has been steadily ceding territory. “I would think by the end of the summer, without a doubt, they want to show them that they’re doing something, that it’s not a dead end,” he told CBC News. Away from the battlefield, Russia has increased pressure on European nations such as Germany by cutting gas supplies. It also blocks Ukrainian grain shipments from Black Sea ports, creating a global food crisis. The Kremlin appears to be hoping that continued pressure will undermine the West’s resolve to help Ukraine and persuade the Ukrainians to accept Russia’s terms for surrender. Protesters chant “Go home” as they walk towards retreating Russian military vehicles in Kherson on March 20. Since taking over the city, Russian-appointed administrators have handed out Russian passports, brought in Russian banks, brought in Russian mobile phone companies and made the ruble legal currency. (Reuters) Instead, if Ukraine can demonstrate that a major battlefield victory over Russia is possible, it is in a stronger position to demand more help from the West, O’Brien said. Kherson is “where they should be able to attack with the greatest chance of success – when they are ready”.
“We are in a phase of attrition”
Putin has repeatedly scaled back his stated goals for his invasion of Ukraine. At first, the lightning assault on Kyiv by paratroopers in the early hours of the war appeared to be aimed at capturing the capital and decapitating the Zelensky government. Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy reviews the positions of members of the Ukrainian military in the Dnipropetrovsk region on July 8, as Russia’s offensive on the country continues. (Reuters) Then, after Russian troops suffered heavy losses and withdrew, Putin’s commanders reviewed the war as a battle…
