“Not a real weather forecast,” the Met Office graphics said. “Examples of reasonable weather based on climate predictions.” Well, on Monday and Tuesday, the “reasonable” becomes a reality — 28 years early. Simon Lee, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University in New York, noted the striking similarity between the outlook for 2050 and the forecast for early next week in the UK. “Today, the forecast for Tuesday is shockingly nearly identical for large parts of the country,” Simon wrote, adding in a later post that “what comes on Tuesday provides insight into the future.” In 30 years, this prediction will seem rather typical. Temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal early next week in the UK. Highs could approach 40 degrees Celsius (about 104 degrees Fahrenheit) for the first time — a forecast that prompted forecasters there to issue a “red” heat warning for the first time. To be clear, that would really be a record heat. The country’s hottest temperature ever recorded was 38.7 degrees Celsius at Cambridge Botanic Gardens in 2019. It’s also clearly a sign of how quickly the climate crisis is changing our weather. “We were hoping we wouldn’t get to this situation,” Met Office climate performance scientist Nikos Christidis said. “Climate change has already affected the likelihood of extreme temperatures in the UK. The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be up to 10 times more likely in the current climate than in an unaffected natural climate from human influence.” The possibility of exceeding 40 degrees “is increasing rapidly”, Christidis said. It’s about more than a few uncomfortable days. Extreme heat is one of the deadliest weather events — we just don’t tend to see it happening right now, when heatstroke and death are attributed to underlying conditions like heart disease or respiratory disease. And recent reports suggest that 5% of UK homes lack air conditioning to keep residents cool. We saw a shockingly similar situation in the United States just last summer, when the Pacific Northwest was plagued by extreme heat for days. Hundreds of people died in this heat wave. Officials in British Columbia noted that more than 800 “excess deaths” occurred during the heat wave — deaths that were unexpected and far from the norm for that time of year. Unlike floods or wildfires that destroy a city, the sense of urgency surrounding a deadly heat wave is not as dramatic, said Kristie Ebi, a climate and health researcher at the University of Washington, noting that heat is a “silent killer”. “When it’s hot outside, it’s just hot outside — and so it’s a relatively silent killer,” Eby told CNN. “People are generally unaware and don’t think about the dangers associated with these high temperatures.” He also said it is important to understand that the climate is not what it was a few years ago. The climate crisis is already affecting our lives today and will continue to affect the most vulnerable. “We all look forward to summer as we enjoy the warmer temperatures, but there are people who are at risk in warmer temperatures,” he said. “As the climate continues to change or warmer temperatures become warmer than what we experienced when we were younger, people need to pay more attention, especially to those around you.” CNN’s Rachel Ramirez contributed reporting to this analysis.
