By focusing on political payback within his own party rather than tending to wounds opened by his troubling efforts to cling to power after his 2020 defeat, Mr Trump appears to have only deepened rifts among Republicans during the annual tour. revenge. A clear majority of primary voters under the age of 35, 64 percent, as well as 65 percent of those with at least a college degree — a key indicator of political preferences within the donor class — told pollsters they would vote against Mr. Trump in a presidential primary. Mr. Trump’s behavior on Jan. 6, 2021, appears to have contributed to his declining standing, including among a small but significant section of Republicans who could form the basis of his opposition in a possible primary showdown. While 75 percent of primary voters said Mr. Trump was “simply exercising his right to contest the election,” nearly one in five said he “went so far as to threaten American democracy.” Overall, Mr. Trump maintains his lead in the party: In a hypothetical matchup with five other potential Republican challengers to the president, 49 percent of primary voters said they would support him for a third run. The biggest threat to Mr. Trump’s usurpation within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other candidate in double digits. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they were voting for President Biden in 2020. While about a quarter of Republicans said they did not know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSandis — similar to 46 percent who said the same of Mr. Trump. Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll showed Fox News’ support could prove crucial: Mr. Trump had a 62% to 26% advantage over Mr. DeSantis among of Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mostly get their news from another source. The survey suggests that Mr. Trump will not necessarily enter a primary with an insurmountable advantage over opponents like Mr. DeSantis. His share of the Republican primary electorate is smaller than Hillary Clinton’s share among Democrats at the start of the 2016 race, when she was seen as the inevitable front-runner but ultimately found herself embroiled in a protracted primary against Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Mr. Trump’s problems within his own party leave him pitted against an unusually vulnerable establishment. The Times/Siena poll found that fears among many Republican elites about a Trump nomination may be well-founded: He trailed President Biden, 44 percent to 41 percent, in a hypothetical 2020 rerun, despite plummeting support for Mr. Biden. , with voters nationally giving him a dangerously low 33% job approval rating. A growing non-Trump vote within the party contributed to Mr. Trump’s deficit, with 16 percent of Republicans saying that if he were the nominee they would support Mr. Biden, support a third-party candidate, not vote for all or remained uncertain what to do. That compared with 8 percent of Democrats who said they would similarly abandon Mr. Biden in a matchup with Mr. Trump.
The Biden Presidency
With the midterm elections looming, here’s President Biden.
For Mr. Trump, bleeding that amount of Republican support would represent a sharp increase compared to the already alarming level of the party’s vote he lost in his last race. In 2020, 9 percent of Republicans voted for someone other than Mr. Trump, while Biden lost just 4 percent of Democrats, according to AP VoteCast, a major study of the 2020 electorate by NORC in University of Chicago for The Associated Press. . Kenneth Abreu, a 62-year-old pharmaceutical executive from Pennsylvania, said he had voted Republican for three decades but would support Mr. Biden rather than vote for Mr. Trump again. “Unlike all these other people who believe every word he says, I’m done,” Mr. Abreu said. “All the trash he was talking about, the lies, January 6, the whole thing — I just lost all respect for him.” But many Republicans who favor someone else in a primary would rally behind Mr. Trump if he wins the nomination. Richard Bechtol, a 31-year-old Republican voter in Columbus, Ohio, said he would support either Mr. De Sandys or Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas for the former president. Mr. Bechtol was disturbed by Mr. Trump’s behavior that led to the riot on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021. “I hope he doesn’t run at all,” Mr. Bechtol said of the former president. Mr Bechtol, a lawyer, said he found Mr Trump’s arrogance repulsive, saw Mr Trump as a divisive figure in the party and believed he bore responsibility for the violence. However, he said he would support Mr Trump in 2024 in a rematch with President Biden. “Biden is being bullied by the left wing of his party, and I’m also worried about his cognitive function — actually, I’m worried about that with Trump,” he said. “It’s really a less than two evils situation for me.” It is too early to tell whether challenges to Mr. Trump within his own party will result in more than speed bumps on his path to the Republican nomination. Underscoring his residual strength, he is viewed favorably by 65 percent of Republicans who said they would vote against him in a primary, compared with 33 percent who said they had an unfavorable view. “Trump has done a very good job on the economy,” said Marie Boyce, a New York Republican in her 70s. “There is nothing wrong I could say about him.” David Beard, a 69-year-old retiree in Liberal, Mo., who said he relied mostly on Social Security for his income, said he was frustrated with both political parties and all levels of government. He plans to stick with Mr Trump in 2024, betting that was his best chance to improve the economy. “When Trump was in office, it didn’t seem like prices went down,” Mr. Beard said. He said efforts by Democrats to hold Mr. Trump accountable for the Jan. 6 attack were an unnecessary distraction. “The entire focus of the administration should have been on the people of the United States and the situation we’re in, rather than wasting time and money trying to blame them,” Mr. Beard said. “Nothing is done to help people and I believe that with all my heart.” About 20 percent of all registered voters said they disliked either Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden. Mr. Trump also trailed his successor among those voters, 39 percent to 18 percent. One in five volunteered to pollsters that they would take part in such an election, although this option had not been offered to them. “I never thought I’d say this, but if it was Biden and Trump I don’t think I would vote,” said Gretchen Altman, a 74-year-old retired lawyer in Colorado who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016. I liked his policies Trump, but he was so callous and crude, and making him president was just tearing the country apart.” Ms Aultman said she did not see the current president as an acceptable alternative. “I can’t in good conscience vote for Biden,” he said. “I recognize the signs of age and his mental acuity isn’t going to last another two years.” Between the large number of voters ready for another candidate and the growing number who say they would not vote for the former president again under any circumstances, the poll shows that Mr. Trump’s biggest obstacle to winning a second term is not another a Republican challenger — is himself. John Heaphy, a 70-year-old retired software engineer in Arizona, said he voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 but planned to support Biden in 2024 because of the rebellion on Capitol Hill. Mr Heaphy said Mr Trump had incited a rebellion and was shocked by the support the former president’s false claims received from other Republicans. Indeed, 86 percent of Republicans who said they would support Mr. Trump in the 2024 primary said he was the rightful winner of the 2020 election, according to the poll. “Trump lost the election,” Mr Heaphy said. “There are too many people out there who just don’t seem to believe in reality anymore.” While Mr. Trump has described election integrity as the country’s most pressing concern, just 3 percent of Republicans named it the nation’s top problem. But Mr. Trump’s response to his 2020 defeat was a major factor in how Republicans think about 2024. Among Republicans who said they planned to vote against Mr. Trump in the primary, 32 percent said the former president’s actions threatened American democracy. Paula Hudnall, a 51-year-old nurse in Charleston, W.Va., said Mr. Trump was right to question the election results. He said he did not blame him for the violence at the Capitol. “Whenever you have a large gathering, you’re going to have people who are out of control and unruly,” said Ms. Hudnall, who identified the economy and infrastructure as her top issues. Ms. Hudnall said she was interested in learning about other Republican candidates, but that Mr. Trump already had her vote again for 2024. The Times/Siena poll of 849 registered voters nationwide was conducted by telephone using live pollsters July 5-7….
