The wish lists of attributes selected by Conservative voters and those who supported other parties in 2019 were strikingly similar, with both groups prioritizing the same attributes. Among all voters, the most popular policy priority was “turning the economy around”, with tackling the backlog of the NHS and restoring trust and integrity in public life coming second and third respectively. Cutting taxes for ordinary people was the fourth priority, chosen by 38 per cent of voters overall and 40 per cent of Conservative voters. The poll also highlighted how Conservative voters were more likely to believe that rights for transgender people should remain as they are rather than be expanded, and that the UK should withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Ms Mordaunt has been accused of failing to stand up for women in the trans rights debate – something she denies – and Ms Truss says she is ready to walk away from the convention. About 29 percent of 1,407 voters who had heard of Mr. Tugendhat said he would make a good prime minister, compared with 21 percent of 1,229 voters who had heard of Ms. Badenoch. A campaign spokesman for Tom Tugendhat said: “It is clear that there are now only two candidates who can beat Labor at the next election. “Tom is just starting to introduce himself to the country. Three days ago he was virtually unknown. “People see him and like him. Last night he made it clear that the only way for him is to stand up.” JL Partners said: “Tom Tugendhat topped the table in 70 of the current constituencies controlled by CON and was in the top three in almost all others, significantly ahead of Truss and Badenoch.”

The Conservatives have a narrow path to victory in two years. Although it has weakened in recent months, much of the public’s anger has been directed at Boris Johnson himself rather than the wider party. Questions remain about the party’s core mandate, the extent of its unity and its intentions. But with public support for Starmer Shaky, there is a path for their future leader to follow. Our poll today tries to answer what that might be. Westminster is full of debate on tax cuts, trans issues and the ECHR. But the public has three very clear questions they will be waiting for the next leader to answer. Can they turn the economy around? Can they tackle the NHS backlog? And can they restore trust in our politics? No one expects these challenges to be fully resolved. They’ve seen enough disappointment to know that won’t happen. But they will want someone with the intent and power to deliver.