While this was shocking, it was not entirely unexpected. None of the leadership candidates so far has made a strong case for green jobs and cheap renewable energy. Instead, the only ones speaking out about climate change are culture warriors Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch, who want to scrap net zero targets. As a reporter who covers the space where the environment and politics overlap, I’ve watched this happen with a sinking feeling, knowing that my worst predictions could come true. Our net zero commitments could be abandoned without the consent of the electorate as the leadership candidate decides to abandon it. Just three years ago, under Theresa May’s government, the policy of not emitting more greenhouse gases than we absorb by 2050 was signed into law. This was supported by almost every conservative bar, narrowly. Later in 2019, every MP stood for a clean zero manifesto, led by Boris Johnson, who had a funny vision of a green economy and was excited to put a post-Brexit vision of Britain as a global leader on the world stage. at the UN environment summit Cop26 next year. Even those in the green space who do not vote Conservative were hesitant to say that many of the policies put forward were good enough. But underneath it all, there is a slow, creeping campaign by a nimble right-wing group of MPs who have won over their key colleagues on climate scepticism. Fresh from his Brexit victory, Wycombe MP Steve Baker has found another cozy consensus to collapse – that of net zero. Baker, who runs the powerful ERG group credited with pushing for a hard Brexit, became a trustee of the climate-skeptic thinktank, the Global Warming Policy Foundation. Then, with colleague Craig Mackinlay, he set up the Net Zero Scrutiny Parliamentary Group, launching it in the pages of the Telegraph and asking around 20 MPs to sign up. They said they wanted to challenge net zero and argued it was too expensive. This raised alarm bells for me, so in February this year my colleague Matt Taylor and I looked it up and found that the group had been lobbying other MPs for months and slowly trying to dismantle the climate consensus. We have warned that the Conservatives are sliding into a culture war over climate similar to the one they had over Brexit. At the time, some green activists chided me, pointing out that the majority of Conservatives at the time wanted to get to net zero, and that half of the supporters were on the Conservative Environmental Network, a forum dedicated to net zero policies and goals. But while covering the Brexit campaign, I had seen how a small, nimble coalition of right-wing activists can leave a large group basking in contented consent in the dust. I’m afraid that’s what happened. While the anti-net zero faction has been plotting for months, finding candidates who will repeal net zero in exchange for support, the larger green wing has assumed net zero is a given. As Boris Johnson waned and fell, climate skeptics were working behind the scenes to find a successor who would abandon his green policies. But the green wing was not fighting the same battle. This weekend, I understand he was still trying to find a candidate to subscribe to the green promises included in the 2019 Conservative manifesto. Meanwhile, the climate debate is dominated by Braverman and Badenoch. While I’m on the subject, I spoke to the Braverman/Baker campaign about their tactics to try to understand what has happened. They agree with me that the green wing has yet to send a coherent positive message. Baker has a structure for the campaign called “why/what/how/what-if,” answering all of these questions. He says his opponents “fail because they have insufficient answers to the how and just fall back on the why,” adding: “Hysteria is not a survival strategy.” He is right. Similar to how the Remain campaign’s messaging was largely negative, assuming the positive case for staying in the EU was already an established consensus, Conservative members and MPs have not heard much about a positive case for net zero. The language was not about better jobs and cheaper bills, but about the risk and dangers of future climate change. And the result; Net zero is left behind. This is evident from the way the leadership race is being played out. Michael Gove, regarded by many as one of the greenest Tories, supports Badenoch. Even he seems to have abandoned ship. Jeremy Hunt, who is supposed to be one of the more centrist candidates, is running alongside Esther McVeigh, who is part of Baker’s pure zero control group. Depressingly, libertarian Liz Truss is cited by many Green Tories as their last hope. Although she has not committed to the net zero manifesto pledge at the time of writing, she is backed by Green Tories including Vicky Ford and Simon Clarke, who both cited her support for Cop26 as one of the reasons behind her. While Badenoch and Braverman are highly unlikely to make it to the bottom two, candidates including Rishi Sunak will be vying for their support – and with it, the support of the MPs who support them. This is the concern. That a Tory leader can abandon climate commitments to gain power. The Green Tories should really be putting candidates in this position, getting behind one or the other on the condition that they support positive climate policies, and making the last two candidates fight for their support. But from my conversations with the Green Conservatives, they seem incredibly disorganized and weak, and have been fighting over whether to use the phrase “net zero” instead of making their case to the nation. All this disorganization and turmoil has led to a leadership campaign that could strip this country of its climate commitments and end the net zero dream. We just drove the Cop26. If we fail, it could pave the way for others to follow. No wonder the green wing of the party is confused and terrified. The habitable future of the planet could rest on their shoulders. What a scary thought. Helena Horton is an environment reporter for the Guardian
