The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report due on Friday is likely to show that US employers hired fewer workers last month than in May, and economists say the slowdown may serve as the last sign of recession. Economists polled by Refinitiv predicted the report would show 268,000 nonfarm payrolls were added to payrolls in June, which would have been the slowest in more than a year and down from 390,000 the previous month. A man walks past a “now hiring” sign posted outside a restaurant in Arlington, Virginia on June 3, 2022. (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images) The labor market – along with the economy at large – is expected to cool as the Federal Reserve continues its campaign to raise interest rates in an effort to combat runaway inflation, which is at a 40-year high. JOB OPENINGS REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS But there are growing concerns that the central bank could go too far in slowing demand and plunge the US into a recession, defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Some analysts point to signs that the recession is already here: Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta cut its second-quarter GDP forecast to -2.1%. The Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC ((AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File) / Associated Press) The real-time economic gauge known as GDPNOw is not an official estimate of growth for the quarter ending in June, but if upcoming readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirm the economy shrank in the second quarter, the technical criteria for a recession will have been met . POWELL SAYS ‘NO GUARANTEE’ FED CAN CUT INFLATION WITHOUT HARMING LABOR MARKET The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will make the final determination of whether the economy has entered a recession, which is characterized by high unemployment, low or negative GDP growth, falling income and slowing retail sales. A “We’re Hiring” sign outside a Walmart store in Torrance, California, U.S., Sunday, May 15, 2022. (Bing Guan/Bloomberg via Getty Images/Getty Images) GET THE FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE Initial jobless claims rose to a six-month high of 235,000 last week, beating estimates for 230,000 and signaling the labor market remains tight but demand for work is easing. FOX Business’ Megan Henney contributed to this report.
