As of Monday, however, natural gas flows have dropped to zero. The reason is routine: an annual ten-day pipe maintenance period. But given the context, ministers and traders are gripped by a growing concern: will it be reactivated? As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its fifth month, the Kremlin is increasingly tying up its vast natural gas supplies, suffocating volumes to Europe in retaliation for sanctions. Once considered an oddity, the prospect of a complete shutdown of Nord Stream 1 is now being taken seriously. “For Europe’s energy security, the moment of truth has come,” says Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at think-tank Bruegel in Belgium. “Whether or not Russia continues gas exports to Germany after the Nord Stream maintenance period will be decisive for the continent’s energy, economic and political future.”
How likely is Russia to cut off supplies and how ready is Europe?
“A complete stoppage of Russian gas flows would indeed put significant pressure on the German and overall European economy, with ramifications in terms of political solidarity in all EU countries,” said Mr Tagliapietra. “Europe should do more to prepare for this scenario, which is now more likely than ever.” In recent decades the continent has been hooked on cheap Russian gas, accounting for around 40% of Europe’s wartime supply. Now it is trying to find other sources, as politicians balk at the leverage — and cash — that such reliance hands over to the Kremlin. Unfortunately, other options are limited: natural gas is in short supply, globally, with prices climbing to record levels. Europe wants to fill its natural gas storage facilities before winter, but so far it has reached only 60%, well short of its 80% target. Efforts have been stymied by Russia to cut off buyers including Denmark, Poland and Bulgaria in recent weeks after they refused to meet demands to pay in rubles. Gazprom, Russia’s state gas giant, cut flows to Italy by a third on Monday. In the weeks following the maintenance shutdown, it had already reduced flows through Nord Stream 1 to 40% of normal volumes. He blamed the sanctions for the lack of vital equipment, which Canada has now said it will supply.
