As tens of thousands filled the streets of the Sri Lankan capital on Saturday, China’s ambassador to the South Asian country was distributing food parcels in a town 100 kilometers away. By the time Qi Zhenhong returned to Colombo, protesters had stormed and occupied the presidential palace in scenes reminiscent of the Arab Spring, when Beijing watched in horror as allies across North Africa and the Middle East faced popular uprisings. It was to China’s great relief that most of these revolutions ultimately failed. But with many in Sri Lanka partly blaming the outgoing government’s closeness to Beijing for the current economic crisis, the island nation may be on the verge of slipping out of China’s sphere of influence, wiping out billions of dollars invested by the Asian superpower to build a Base in the Indian Ocean. Doug Sanders: Sri Lanka’s mass uprising against ruling family 13 years in the making “Bilateral ties were already under pressure before the events of July 9,” said Fung Siu, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, noting that China was less willing than other creditors, particularly regional rival India, to sit down with Sri Lanka. officials to negotiate the country’s debt. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters in Beijing on Monday that China is closely monitoring the latest developments. “As a friendly neighbor and cooperative partner, we sincerely hope that all sectors of Sri Lanka will keep the fundamental interests of the country and the people in mind and work together to overcome the difficulties,” he said. China’s footprint has grown significantly in Sri Lanka over the past decade, as Colombo sought aid and investment after the end of the 26-year civil war. Many governments have tried to balance India’s influence with China by playing off each other. Under Mahinda Rajapaksa’s presidency, which ended in 2015, Colombo moved much closer to Beijing, deepening ties with New Delhi, although this was somewhat reversed under his successor Maithripala Sirisena. When his younger brother Mr Rajapaksa Gotabaya won the presidency in 2019, he continued the balancing act, seeking to reassure New Delhi while improving relations with Beijing. But while he may have had some diplomatic buzz, his financial management has proved disastrous, exacerbating a crisis that has seen his heavily indebted country run out of money to pay for food and fuel. China holds only 10 percent of the billion dollars owed by Colombo, about the same as Japan, but is viewed with far greater suspicion in Sri Lanka and abroad than other lenders. Those who accuse Beijing of trying to leverage borrowing to take control of key infrastructure in other countries – what is known as a “debt trap” – often point to the case of Hambantota International Port in southern Sri Lanka, which was taken over by a Chinese company a 99-year lease in 2017 after the government could no longer afford the repayments. While the reality is far more complicated than the “debt trap” picture painted by Beijing’s critics, and Chinese officials vehemently deny such claims, such perceptions have damaged China’s image in Sri Lanka, as has the apparent friendship of Rajapaksas with Beijing. People gather to visit the official residence of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Colombo on July 11, 2022, after protesters occupied the presidential palace.ARUN SANKAR/AFP/Getty Images With protesters rowing into his presidential pool this week, Gotabaya Rajapaksa has finally agreed to step down. His brother resigned as prime minister several weeks ago in a move that failed to stem the unrest. Opposition parties are in the process of forming a new government, which will face the unenviable task of negotiating with Sri Lanka’s numerous debt holders and trying to get the economy back on track amid intense public scrutiny. “The people’s struggle is for broader political reforms,” protester Jude Hansana told Reuters on Monday. “Not just for the president to leave. This is just the beginning.” While Beijing has touted the food and other aid it has provided to Sri Lanka since the start of the current crisis, it has not stepped up financially in the way some – including, apparently, the Rajapaksa administration – expected. Through both the Belt and Road Initiative and other deals, Beijing has lent billions of dollars to small countries around the world in recent years and does not want to send the message that debts can be easily restructured in times of crisis, let alone are deleted. analysts said. “I think it is safe to assume that creditors will be asked to write off some of the capital owed by Sri Lanka,” Ms Siu said. “The biggest unknown is whether China will accept this. If that doesn’t happen, debt restructuring talks could stall.” And while Beijing will seek to avoid losing influence in Sri Lanka entirely, the ruling Communist Party will be wary of engaging with a government that came to power through mass protests, as it did during the Arab Spring. Over the weekend, China’s embassy warned its citizens in the country not to participate in protests. On Chinese social media, where discussion of popular movements is heavily censored, some pointed to the chaos in Sri Lanka as evidence of the dangers of democracy, compared to the stability of China’s authoritarian system. In an editorial on Sunday, China’s state-run Global Times tabloid criticized the “warped enthusiasm” expressed by some in the West at the prospect of Sri Lanka breaking away from China and warned against the island nation becoming a pawn in “great power competition”. . With files from Reuters and Alexandra Li
