When he stepped down as prime minister in 2007 after just one year, most assumed he would fade into an inconspicuous backroom career. Yet just over a decade later, he had become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, with a string of major policy reforms to his name and even his own globally recognized brand of economic stimulus, Abenomics. In 2012, when Abe regained the reins of power in a landslide election, Japan’s economy, once the world’s second largest, had flattened for two decades. Although many had tried, none had been able to rouse it from stagnation. Facing tough odds, Abe pursued a three-pronged approach of dramatically increasing the money supply, boosting government spending and pushing through structural reforms. The combination of ‘Abenomics’ was to deliver a massive jolt aimed at lifting inflation to 2%, boosting consumer spending and stimulating the ‘animal spirits’ of Japan’s capitalist class. The bold neoliberal move shook up a moribund stock market and led to significant profits for Japan’s major export companies. The excitement of change and an open future propelled Abe into the world spotlight as he declared, “Japan is back.” Shinzo Abe and President Barack Obama in Tokyo in 2014. Abe wanted to maintain stability in foreign affairs and the alliance between Japan and the US. Photo: Carolyn Kaster/AP Abe pushed through further reforms, many exposing his conservative leanings, which had changed little since his first premiership. However, lifted by the wind of Abenomics, he was able to see through policy goals that were blocked earlier. His State Secrets Act made many whistle-blowing activities illegal and subject to harsh punishment. Against widespread public protests, he expanded military spending and reinterpreted the constitution to allow Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to aid allies under attack. Conversely, it restarted nuclear power, which had been dormant since the 2011 Fukushima disaster. Facing a declining population, Abe launched programs to boost marriage and fertility rates, making major expansions in childcare, under the maternal wartime slogan of “give birth, increase [the population]!” Female employment expanded, but mainly in temporary contract positions, while it reduced targets for promoting women to leadership positions in businesses from 30% to just 5%. However, Abenomics never fully delivered the economic recovery it promised. Loose monetary policy has driven public debt to nearly 240% of GDP under his control. Instead of a recovery in spending, average household income fell as gains were not redistributed and consumers were hit by controversial sales tax hikes. The rate of inflation – the driving force behind the reform – never reached 2%, and was even negative until 2020. The late capitalist trio of debt, deflation, and depopulation continued to haunt him. However, as of mid-2020, Abe was Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, having closed the revolving door to the seat held by 14 people over the previous two decades. What was the secret of his success? In 2007, he had ended his first term as prime minister amid financial scandals and electoral losses. When he was re-elected five years later, the landscape had changed. His campaign slogan from the early 2014 election gives the most succinct answer: “There is no other way.” Opposition parties were in disarray, and strongmen from Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party could only cheer when its main rival, the Democratic Party of Japan, split in two. There was simply no challenge in sight – not even within the LDP. In a shrewd political move, Abe shut out the traditional source of alternative views within Japan’s largely one-party democracy, namely factional competition within the LDP. He neutered his main challengers by handing them difficult ministerial portfolios and tamed the once largely independent civil service by appointing key posts himself. He also disciplined the media through his chief cabinet and successor, Yoshihide Suga, known for his bulldog approach to journalists. In this new context, the money scandals that continued to dog Abe in his second term were more of a nuisance than a real threat. Abe’s greatest achievements lie in foreign policy, if measured in maintaining stability. As prime minister, he was constantly on the road, visiting more countries than any of his predecessors as he broke with Japan’s traditional alliances to secure trade deals around the world. His strong nationalistic tendencies were often, if not always, tempered when dealing with Japan’s closest neighbors, who were still susceptible to Japanese imperial attacks. He did much to secure the Japan-US alliance even as it came under strain, particularly as the White House adopted increasingly harsh language against its traditional allies. Abe’s diplomatic skills have earned him the nickname “Trump’s Whisperer” as the US backed down from threats of import tariffs and an increase in the fees Japan pays to host US military bases. When the US pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Abe kept the pact alive, becoming the standard-bearer of the regional alliance. However, he was never able to lay his hands on his most sought-after trophy: the revision of the constitution. The amendment had long been part of the LDP’s platform, but Abe went much further than his predecessors to push for a change to a document that had not been revised since 1947. At the heart of the controversy was Article 9, which waives right of war, but Abe hoped to change almost every article of the document, which is often derided as an imposition by the US occupation forces. However, constitutional revision has long been controversial among a public that has embraced the peace article as part of national identity. So Abe took a cautious, but relentless, approach. He lowered the voting age to get young people to participate, launched public relations campaigns against some outdated phrases in the document and raised the issue after each election victory. Again caution prevailed: the revision never went to a vote. Many predicted that Abe would lead the 2020 Tokyo Olympics hype to finally push through the changes. But once they became the 2021 Olympics, it became clear that the ever-receding goal would remain elusive. By the summer of 2020, Abe was facing criticism over the government’s response to Covid-19 and the return of the ulcerative colitis that had caused his first resignation in 2007. In September 2020, he resigned to become one of the politicians with the most influence behind the scenes, ensuring the succession of his allies Suga and Fumio Kishida to the prime ministership. Born in Tokyo, Shinzo was the son of Yoko Kishi and Shintaro Abe. After studying public administration at Seikei University and public policy at the University of Southern California, he worked, first in industry and later in adjunct roles in government. In 1993 he officially entered the family business – politics – when he was elected to the House of Representatives. The seat he took was long held by his father, a career politician and former minister. The political pedigree on his mother’s side, however, was even more influential. Shinzo’s great-grandfather, Eisaku Satō, was the longest-serving prime minister of the post-war years before Abe overtook him, but more of an inspiration was his maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, who became prime minister after being cleared of war crimes charges. . Abe’s long fight to revise the Japanese constitution has often been seen as a continuation of a battle championed by his grandfather. In 1987 Abe married Aki Matsuzaki, an heiress and former radio disc jockey whose outspoken views earned her the title of “domestic opposition party” during her husband’s premiership. Given the relatively smooth transition he had from the Diet during his eight years in office, this may have been the greatest source of political challenge he faced. She survives him. Shinzo Abe, politician, b. 21 Sep 1954. Died 8 Jul 2022
