The COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and US-China rivalry have roiled the strategic region in the years since its leaders last met in person in 2019. Even so, several parties are conspicuously absent from the event. Kiribati, a 33-island nation roughly halfway between Australia and Hawaii, announced on Sunday that it had again pulled out of the PIF over a rift stemming from a disputed leadership transition that has reportedly sidelined the Micronesian nations. Kiribati and four other Micronesian states had threatened to leave last year, but “Micronexit” was averted after a deal to keep the bloc was brokered early last month. The forum, which includes 16 small island nations along with Australia and New Zealand, is also violating the convention and postponing the dialogue partners’ ministerial meeting, a gathering of representatives from its 21 external partners, including the United States and China, which typically coincides with the summit. The withdrawal of partner countries potentially gives Pacific states more space to focus on domestic affairs as the outside world becomes increasingly involved in their region. “It’s a good decision in my opinion,” Robert Bohn, a former Vanuatu lawmaker who now serves as an adviser to the foreign minister, told Al Jazeera. “We need to get our house in order before we talk to the rest of the world. We need to restore consensus among ourselves as we enter the post-COVID era.” Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting to launch 2050 Strategy for Pacific Blue Continent this week [File: Mario Tama/Getty Images] The forum aims to break ground on several issues, ranging from climate change to security and connectivity, as part of its new vision for regional development – the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent. “We are about to take control of our economic sovereignty,” Zarak Khan, Director of Programs and Initiatives at the PIF Secretariat in Fiji, told Al Jazeera. “The 2050 Strategy is our north star. It is about securing the prospects, the people and the position of our region. It is also about investing in scientific research, information technology, e-commerce and education to unlock the potential of our young population. We will do this by leveraging sustainable finance to build a knowledge economy to complement the blue economy.” Although the strategy is scheduled to be launched this week, some leaders say the process is still far from complete. “Our position is still a bit unclear when it comes to this,” Bohn said of Vanuatu’s stance on the initiative. “I’m not hearing a well-articulated answer as to exactly how the strategy will be implemented, and I don’t think other neighboring nations are much further than us.” Bohn said that while developed countries would prefer to see the region adopt a unified strategy, it is unclear whether Pacific island nations are ready for a unified approach. “There is a lot of work to be done to come up with a strategy that works,” he said, adding that varying conditions across the region make a “one-size-fits-all solution” difficult to grasp. Khan said the 2050 vision will not be implemented in one go. “There will be steps to get there. The Pacific is inspired by development models from Asia, such as that of Singapore, which used phased five-year plans to achieve long-term goals,” Khan said. “After Thursday’s launch, we will enter the implementation plan phase, where we will see new meetings in September and October where we will discuss the assignment of delegates, the allocation of resources, the identification of specific objectives and the introduction of action plans that will be finalized that the moment”. Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be high on the agenda at the 51st PIF Leaders’ Meeting [File: Mario Tama/Getty Images] Overcoming the lingering impact of the pandemic on the region will be among the key issues on the agenda. “Pacific island countries remain extremely vulnerable to the health and economic impacts of the pandemic,” Melissa Conley Tyler, program director at AP4D, a Canberra-based think tank, told Al Jazeera. “For example, in addition to the immediate impact on tourism, closing schools for long periods during the pandemic had huge long-term effects on education.” Conley Tyler said Pacific leaders are concerned about the possibility of a “lost decade,” or even a lost generation, due to the pandemic. “Daily, widespread struggles to access basic services – such as health care, education, financial services, markets and income-generating opportunities – present fundamental challenges,” he said. The ‘Blue Economy’ – a broad term describing approaches to sustainable maritime economic activity – is expected to feature prominently in the forthcoming strategy. Khan said Pacific nations have a lot to teach the world about sustainable fishing practices, which can be done through consultations with institutional partners of the 2050 Strategy. Bohn said Vanuatu, an archipelago of about 320,000 people located about 800 kilometers west of Fiji, was reorganizing its bureaucracy for the first time in decades to better focus on the blue economy. By the end of the year, the new Ministry of Fisheries, Oceans and Shipping is expected to be established. “We’re focusing on the blue economy, but we’re also going green, and we’re increasingly expected to meet the same standards as developed countries, which is another challenge,” Bohn said. “So we’re wondering how developed countries are going to approach climate change and what’s coming in terms of tangible aid. We will need to buy new green ships, for example, but where are the funds for that?” Khan said sustainable financing would be crucial to ensure that small island states do not become overburdened with debt. “There have been cases where small Pacific states have prematurely graduated from Least Developed Country (LDC) status, which has knocked the development aid ladder out from under their feet.” Climate finance is a concern shared by policy experts in Australia, which is not only a PIF member but also the region’s largest foreign aid donor. “I hope one of the things on the agenda is how Australia can support international leadership and diplomacy in the Pacific on climate action,” Conley Tyler said. “Australia has changed its climate policy, confirming that climate change is the single biggest threat to the Pacific region,” he added. “Australia must join the Pacific for meaningful collective diplomacy on climate change. Australia has raised the possibility of co-hosting a Conference of the Parties [COP] meeting with Pacific Island countries and I hope this is something that will be discussed at the summit.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holds a virtual meeting with 10 of his counterparts on the Pacific island on Thursday [File: Vaitogi Asuisui Matafeo/AFP] Australia was not alone in suggesting avenues for dialogue. While Pacific leaders have sought to disrupt geopolitical maneuvering between the US, its allies and China, larger powers continue to seek influence. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is trying to make his presence felt by holding a virtual meeting with 10 of his counterparts on the Pacific island on Thursday – the final day of the forum. The meeting comes after China in May failed to persuade the leaders to sign a security pact that would have strengthened its influence in the region. “We are busy enough to prepare for the summit without undue outside interference,” Bohn said. “There is a risk that the meeting will distract from the summit itself, but there is also a risk here for China.” “They want to be careful about the demands that island nations don’t want to put up with. Pacific Islanders don’t like to be pushed too hard.” The US, Australia, New Zealand, the UK and Japan recently launched their Partners in the Blue Pacific (PBP) initiative to promote “more effective and efficient cooperation in support of Pacific Island priorities”. However, there has been criticism from some Pacific studies scholars that the PBP nations are “co-opting” the Blue Pacific narrative and “undermining” the established principles of the Pacific itself for their own geopolitical purposes. “They have to be careful how they approach it,” Bohn said. “My advice to these five countries would be: don’t let your reaction to China’s meddling make you react in a way that is also not acceptable to the island nations. I hope all parties can slow down and listen to the island nations themselves.”
