According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), only Scotland had a worse infection rate, with one in 17 people there testing positive for the virus during the week ending June 30. The Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants are behind the explosion in case numbers. Across the UK, 2.7 million people in private households are estimated to have had Covid last week, an 18% increase from 2.3 million the previous week. It was the highest estimate since late April, but was still below the record high of 4.9 million reached in late March during a wave of infections caused by the BA.2 variant. In England, 2.2 million people were likely to have the virus last week, equivalent to about one in 25, from one in 30. Wales has also seen infections rise to one in 20 people, from one in 30 . Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia and an expert in infectious diseases, said: “I suspect we will see a peak of infections that will be greater than previous waves, probably before the end of this month. “I’m not sure how high the number of people hospitalized due to Covid or deaths with Covid appearing on the death certificate will be, but I think it’s likely – but not certain – that it will fall below what was seen after the previous waves. “ Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said the UK was in “a significant wave of infection” which underlined that the coronavirus was “not just a problem in winter”. Vaccines continue to provide significant protection, but “not all older people get their fourth or even third dose, which increases the risk of serious illness, hospitalization and death,” he added. “There are signs that the wave may have started to crest. The increase in cases appears to be slowing in the most affected areas, particularly in Scotland. Hopefully next week’s data will confirm this trend,” Mr Woolhouse said. “There is no reason to expect the waves associated with the new variants to stop any time soon, so we must plan for continued pressure on the NHS.” Separately, there were 20 local Covid-related deaths in the week to July 1, according to figures from the Statistics and Research Agency for Northern Ireland. That brings the total number of deaths linked to the virus to 4,684. Three-quarters of local Covid-related deaths involve people aged 75 and over. Separate analysis showed that the provisional number of total deaths from all causes recorded in Northern Ireland in the week ending July 1 was 347. That was 25 more than the previous week and 65 more than the five-year average of 282. Sarah Croft of the ONS called for caution. “We continue to see infections increasing across all UK countries, English regions and age groups,” he said. “These increases are due to an increase in infections with the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of Omicron, which have been prevalent since mid-June. “Scotland continues to have the highest infection rate, although it has recently increased at a slower rate compared to other UK countries.”
