Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has caused carnage across the country, but in Odessa – a port city known for its busy sea terminal and bustling tourist traffic – it has brought an eerie silence. The Odessa region has been the target of repeated rocket attacks since Russia invaded in February, including last week’s attack on a leisure center and apartment building that killed 21 people. Another this week destroyed a grain storage facility as Russia stepped up its effort to cripple Ukraine’s economic infrastructure — a strategy that relies on a naval blockade of Black Sea terminals, including Odessa. “Odessa has three sources of income: the ports, the wholesale market that sells goods coming to the port and tourists,” said Andrey Stavnitser, chief executive of TransinvestService, a terminal operator at the nearby port of Pivdenny. “All three of them are as dead as possible.”
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Before the war, Odessa was the main export hub as Ukraine became an agricultural powerhouse, accounting for nearly 15 percent of world grain exports. Its ports could handle 5 million tons of agricultural products per month. Ukraine’s third largest city with a pre-war population of over 1 million, Odessa was also one of the country’s main tourist destinations, especially among well-heeled Russians. Hotel TVs still broadcast channels from Moscow, and the Russian language remains more common than Ukrainian. Before hostilities broke out, the region could count on 4 million tourists a year, including domestic visitors who came in greater numbers after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea put the peninsula largely off-limits. Now the bars on the once popular Derybasivska Street are doing their best to lure locals, but the percentage is low. Much of Odessa’s stylish center, including the famous Potemkin Stairs, is off limits behind a heavily guarded cordon. In addition to the absent tourists, large numbers of Odessa residents have fled to be replaced by refugees fleeing the fierce artillery war in the east of the country. More than 70,000 are officially registered as refugees in the region, but officials say the number could be as high as 400,000. A man works in a wheat shed in Odessa, where an estimated $100 billion worth of goods, including grain, have been blocked due to the blockade © Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images The war was a deep shock for a city with deep cultural ties to Russia and where officials admit that a significant minority of residents initially supported the invasion. But the “catastrophic” war has shattered those illusions, according to Roman Grygoryshyn, head of inward investment and tourism at the regional administration. He once filled his days hosting online meetings with business leaders and planned Odesa’s bid to host Expo 2030. Now tasked with providing body armor, he and other Odesians learn to cope with the massive changes that war brings. “We have a completely different attitude,” he said. At a recent donor event in Lugano, Ukraine estimated that the cost of rebuilding its economy could be at least $750 billion — though the war and counting is far from over. Stavnitser from the Pivdenny port said $100 billion worth of goods have been blocked due to the embargo, including grain, sunflower oil, iron ore and other materials. Dozens of ships in Odessa and surrounding ports were unable to leave Ukrainian waters. The number will rise as Ukrainian farmers harvest crops that do not have easy access to world markets. The Odessa region has been the target of repeated bombings, including a recent attack on a recreation center and apartment building that killed 21 people © NurPhoto/Getty Images “It’s an absolute mess,” said Andrey Sokolov, a partner at Tully Logistics, a local services company that helps exporters book space on ships loading at Danube ports such as Reni, near the Romanian border. Ukraine’s small Danube ports have increased capacity, but cannot match the trade volumes that passed through the larger sea terminals. Russian missile attacks have already shut down the rail to these ports, south of Odessa, and are now targeting the road route as well. Industries that depend on foreign raw materials or wholesale goods have also been crippled by the blockade, said Stanislav Novykov, a local official who heads a social policy committee in Ukraine’s parliament. 40 percent of local businesses have closed either partially or completely, he said, citing the Odessa Stalkanat factory, one of the largest makers of steel ropes and wires in Eastern Europe, which was operating at just a quarter of capacity. An aid point in Odessa for refugees who have fled the constant artillery bombardment in the east of the country © Leszek Szymanski/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock “There is no confidence that anyone can sell goods or that they can buy raw materials,” he said. “There is also a shortage of people. . . they have gone to the front line a lot to defend their country.” Odessa remains a target for Putin’s missiles and Russian conquest. Relentless coastal artillery shelling in Mykolayiv could be part of Russia’s efforts to push its troops west in a bid to create a land bridge from the Donbas to Transnistria, the Moscow-backed breakaway region of Moldova, military officials believe analysts. Odessa would stand in the way. Some in Odessa remain optimistic that the worst is over — at least for the ports. Ukraine’s recent recapture of Snake Island, a strategic Black Sea outpost, fueled hopes that the blockade could be broken. Some shippers hope talks brokered by Turkey and the UN could pressure Russia to lift its blockade. Stavnitzer said most of the ports could reopen within weeks of any deal, even before the mines guarding the coast are cleared. “We know the map of the mines, we know how to get around them,” he said, adding that “people are willing to work, so it will be easy to get them back.” But others are skeptical. Even assuming Russia agreed not to fire on merchant ships, as it has done in recent months, insurance premiums for commercial shipping could be prohibitively expensive if naval vessels continued to threaten surrounding waters. “Want to learn how to unblock ports?” said Oleksandr Sytchenko, a former port authority official. “Destroy the Russian fleet. They won’t understand anything else.”
