“While this was a routine process that attracted little attention, there is a fear this time that Russia will not resume gas shipments thereafter,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note to clients. Flows through the pipeline were already reduced. Last month, Germany – Europe’s largest economy – declared a “gas crisis” after Gazprom, Russia’s state gas company, cut exports through Nord Stream 1 by 60%. Gazprom blamed the move on the West’s decision to withhold vital turbines due to sanctions, but it was seen by politicians in Europe as a warning shot. “Anything can happen. Gas may flow again, even more than before. There may be nothing,” Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, said Sunday in a radio interview. “Honestly we always have to prepare for the worst and work a little bit for the best.” France’s finance minister also said on Sunday that the country should act quickly and effectively to prepare for a “total shutdown of Russian gas”, although it is less dependent on natural gas as an energy source than Germany. Nord Stream 1, which came into operation in 2011, transports 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to Europe via the Baltic Sea. Typically, Gazprom has dealt with the maintenance period by increasing supplies traveling to Europe through other pipelines or through storage. This time, the company said that’s not an option, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Italian gas giant Eni said on Monday it had been told by Gazprom that it would start supplying 21 million cubic meters of natural gas per day. The average for the past few days has been about 32 million cubic meters per day. Europe is struggling to wean itself off Russian energy, but reducing dependence on natural gas is particularly difficult. The region received 45% of its natural gas imports from Russia last year, and is currently rushing to refill storage facilities ahead of winter. Berlin has activated the second phase of its gas emergency program in three stages. This brings it one step closer to restricting supplies to industry players, a step that would deal a huge blow to the manufacturing heart of the country’s economy. Consumers have been told to reduce demand as conservation efforts escalate. Last week, Germany’s biggest landlord said it would turn down the heat for hundreds of thousands of residents in the coming months. Benchmark natural gas prices in Europe rose to their highest level since March last week. They could continue to rise in the coming days, increasing pressure on governments to develop emergency plans. “The concerns are likely to push the gas price further until it becomes clear what will happen to gas supplies once the maintenance work is completed,” Commerzbank said. — Chris Liakos contributed reporting.
