“They sincerely exchanged views on further promoting existing friendly relations and military-technological cooperation,” Myanmar’s state media reported, following a meeting between top general Min Aung Hlaing and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Russia has emerged as one of the most important backers of Myanmar’s military, which seized power in a coup in February 2021 despite a 2020 election victory by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy. The new regime has little international legitimacy and has struggled to control a country that erupted first in mass protests and then armed resistance against its rule. Even Russia has refrained from formally recognizing the military as Myanmar’s government, agreeing to allow the ousted government’s appointed ambassador to retain his seat at the United Nations. And while Min Aung Hlaing has made several trips to Russia since the coup, he has not been granted a coveted audience with President Vladimir Putin. But even as many Western nations have imposed sanctions on its military, leaders and business interests, Russia and China have continued to arm the regime even as it turns its guns on its own citizens, killing more than 2,000 people in less than 18 months. “The Putin regime aids and abets the Myanmar military’s war crimes and crimes against humanity, which it commits on a daily basis with complete impunity,” said Kin Omar, president of the human rights group Progressive Voice. One of the most critical pieces of support has been the regime’s air force, whose commander is also a member of the delegation to Russia. The military faces stiff resistance from fledgling anti-coup armed groups known as the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) as well as more entrenched ethnic armed groups, which have fought for political autonomy for decades. While these allied groups have surprised many analysts with their post-coup battlefield victories, none have warplanes, so the military’s air dominance gives it a distinct advantage. Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based security analyst, says the military’s “current counterinsurgency campaign relies heavily on Russian and Soviet-era aerial frameworks” for attacks, supply lines, evacuations and troop transport. “Without a reliable supply of spare parts, non-domestic ammunition and some training assistance, the air force would soon be in serious trouble,” he added.
Civilians were forced to flee
The UN says around 700,000 people have been forced from their homes as a result of the fighting since the coup, with Min Aung Hlaing vowing to “exterminate” army opponents. Earlier this month, local media outlet The Irrawaddy reported that two of six promised Russian Su-30 fighter jets had secretly arrived in Myanmar in March. On Thursday, Radio Free Asia reported that military helicopters opened fire on Tabayin township in Sagaing district, a PDF stronghold, forcing 4,000 civilians to flee 15 villages. In a recent report, Amnesty International said it recorded eight airstrikes targeting villages and an IDP camp between January and March this year in Kayah and Karen states, where prominent ethnic armed groups operate. “In almost all documented attacks, only civilians appear to have been present,” the report said. Amnesty says the military has used Russian MiG-29s and Yak-130s and Chinese F-7s and K-8s. “Indiscriminate airstrikes are a key tactic of the illegitimate junta as it conducts a nationwide campaign of terror. The junta is using Russian fighter jets and helicopters to attack the Myanmar people and level entire communities,” Omar said, accusing Russia of profiting from the atrocities. Davis says Russia “has been the main beneficiary” of the military’s efforts to avoid over-reliance on China “particularly in terms of military aviation sales.” He said this pattern of diversification began more than a decade ago. Myanmar sources much of its weapons from Russia and China [File: Nyein Chan Naing/EPA] “Since the coup, lingering suspicions of growing Chinese ambitions in Myanmar in the upper echelons of a now embattled military have underscored the benefits, political, military and economic, of a closer relationship with Russia,” he said. Myanmar’s military also caused an uproar by claiming that Min Aung Hlaing discussed the “peaceful use of nuclear energy” during a meeting on his trip with Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear company, which also oversees nuclear weapons. But Guillaume de Langret, a Myanmar energy expert and former government adviser, dismisses nuclear talks as unrealistic. “Myanmar does not have a single nuclear scientist. So either Russia is willing to build and operate power plants and the full supply chain, from fuel to waste, or Myanmar has to spend the next decade training nuclear scientists,” he said. De Langre also argues that the coup “put the highway electricity sector into bankruptcy” and the military regime “does not have much credibility as a buyer or guarantor of the safety of infrastructure projects”.
ASEAN Defense Meeting
Min Aung Hlaing’s week-long visit – state media said he returned to Yangon on Saturday night – comes at a time when the military is increasingly isolated and with Russia facing an international backlash over its invasion of Ukraine in February 24. Myanmar’s military regime, officially known as the State Administration Council (SAC), expelled the UK’s top diplomat on Wednesday after he refused to present Min Aung Hlaing’s credentials and tried to downgrade his status from ambassador to chargé d’affaires. The UK’s defense attaché for Myanmar tweeted that the regime was moving “further into the diplomatic wilderness”. 1/2 My time in Myanmar comes to an abrupt end today. We are sorry and I am sorry that we were forced to leave by the junta, but we are glad that we did not give in to pressure to legitimize their brutal coup #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar — Pete Vowles (@PeteVowles) July 13, 2022 Even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), long known for its policy of non-interference in domestic affairs, has supported the SAC, refusing to allow Min Aung Hlaing or his foreign minister to attend high-level summits after the regime. failure to make progress on a jointly agreed five-point plan to address the crisis. But some would like to see more action, including the exclusion of the regime’s defense minister, who has been allowed to continue attending ASEAN gatherings. This month’s ASEAN counter-terrorism meeting is to be co-hosted by Russia and Myanmar and will begin in Moscow on July 20. “It is absurd that ASEAN allows aggressor Russia and the terrorist Myanmar army to co-chair an anti-terrorist meeting, which will only fuel their deplorable terrorist acts,” Ohmar said, urging democratic nations to boycott the event. Australia and New Zealand have already pulled out of the meeting, but Japan, South Korea and the United States have yet to make their decisions public, despite all three imposing sanctions on Moscow. Myanmar’s military is likely to politicize the meeting. During a previous mock meeting in December, the military included a session accusing its political opponents of “terrorism”, according to emails from the Australian Department of Defense obtained in a freedom of information request by the campaign group Justice for Myanmar . “I urge their governments to … withdraw from this meeting and all future meetings with the Myanmar military junta,” Omar said.
