Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and Transport Secretary Grant Shapps have thrown their hats in the ring. Shapps, who was among the cabinet ministers who told Johnson his time was up last week, said he would end the period of “regular government”, which is repeatedly distracted by crises. He was not among the ministers who resigned last week and signaled his loyalty to previous prime ministers. “I have not spent the last tumultuous years plotting or informing against the prime minister,” he told the Sunday Times. “I have not mobilized a leadership campaign behind his back. I tell you this: for all his faults – and who is not flawed? – I like Boris Johnson. I never, not for a moment, doubted his love for this country.” That comment will be seen as a blow to Rishi Sunak, who has been accused by Johnson’s allies of planning his bid for months. Shapps previously played a key role in Johnson’s success in the last Conservative leadership contest. Sunak, the former chancellor, appears to be garnering the most approval in the early days of the contest, garnering broad support from across the party. His team also says they are seeing growing grassroots support, with thousands signing up to his campaign on the first day of its launch. Momentum also appeared to be building for incumbent Zahawi on Saturday night, with former cabinet minister Brandon Lewis becoming the most prominent figure to endorse his recently launched campaign. Grant Shapps was among the cabinet ministers who confronted Boris Johnson last week to tell him his time was up. Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images But Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who has become popular with the party base thanks to his support for Ukraine, said he would not stand. It was news that disappointed Johnson’s loyalists, who had seen him as the best “continuation candidate.” Some now see Priti Patel, the home secretary, as their best hope, but she has yet to reveal whether she is running. While Sunak has built an early lead among MPs, there are already signs that there is enough support for a figure on the right of the party who is hard-line on Brexit, immigration and the “culture war”. Both Attorney General Suella Braverman and Junior Minister Kemi Badenoch appeared to have support for their announced leadership bids. Braverman, who has pushed the government to take a hard line on the Northern Ireland protocol, won the significant support of arch-Brexiter Steve Baker. But a newly elected 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers will this week set the rules of the contest, with several senior Tories calling for changes to scrap some of the “absurd” leadership bids. Under current rules, a Tory MP must be nominated by eight of their peers. In the first round of voting, candidates must collect 5% of the vote to remain in the candidacy, i.e. 18 MPs. It is now possible that these limits could be increased to ensure a faster tender. Currently, backbenchers like Rehman Chishti and John Baron have suggested they could run.
The problems faced by prospective leaders
The Tory leadership contest will begin against a bleak economic backdrop, with pressure mounting for more spending on public services and as public sector workers demand pay rises linked to inflation or better. Serious problems remain with Brexit and Covid numbers are rising again. Some fear that risky promises may be made to win votes. What will be the key issues in the leadership debate that could shape public policy under the next prime minister, and on what issues will the candidates seek to make their mark? TaxesMany Tory MPs and party members would like to see tax cuts sooner rather than later to get public spending and the economy moving and want existing plans to raise taxes such as corporation tax scrapped. One of the favorites – Rishi Sunak – will struggle to present himself as a tax-cutting Tory leader having pushed the overall burden upwards when he was chancellor. His opponents, however, will be tempted to pledge to cut the tax burden, despite warnings from the Office for Budget Responsibility last week that doing so would be too risky in an economy weighed down by inflation and high borrowing. Public Sector teachers, NHS staff, local government workers and millions of others across the public sector are demanding big pay rises close to or above the rising rate of inflation. Will the would-be prime ministers demand more restraint and support an approach that could trigger an explosion of strikes? Or will some take a more conciliatory approach by supporting teachers, nurses and rail workers in order to avoid more disruption for parents, children, hospital patients and commuters this summer and autumn? Brexit Brexit continues to be a highly exercised issue for anti-EU Tory MPs and party members. A clear majority backed Boris Johnson’s hard-line approach and credited him with “getting Brexit done”. Brussels’ adoption of a similarly hard-line approach to the protocol is likely to prove popular with citizens, but would risk sparking a trade war with the EU and angering Washington. Health The pandemic may have passed its peak, but Covid cases are rising again. The NHS needs more funding if it is to tackle the non-Covid case backlog and be in a fit state to handle a winter outbreak. The long-awaited welfare reforms have not yet materialized. There are big debates to be had about the size of the state and whether public spending should increase further to meet today’s challenges. Big talk and big promises will be easy to make, but less easy to keep. Toby Helm, Political Editor
