India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2023, according to a new United Nations report looking at population trends. Why it matters: India, despite a democratic backsliding in recent years, is the world’s largest democracy and is seen by the West as a key counterweight to China’s influence in the region, according to Zachary Basu of Axios.
US governments have prioritized strengthening economic and strategic ties with India as US-China competition has accelerated and become a defining dynamic of the 21st century.
Driving the news: The world’s population will reach 8 billion by November 15 and 9.7 billion in 2050, but the world’s population is growing at the slowest rate since 1950 due to declining fertility rates in many countries. Rising rates of immigration are also slowing growth in some parts of the world.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also had an impact on overall population growth, raising global life expectancy from 72.9 in 2019 to 71 in 2021 (but improvements in medication and health could bring life expectancy to 77.2 years in 2050), according to the report.
What they say: The 8 billion milestone is a “reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. a statement to coincide with the publication of the report.
“In the world we’re trying to build, 8 billion people mean 8 billion opportunities to live dignified and fulfilled lives.”
There will be huge changes in where and how countries’ populations grow or shrink, the report says.
Most of the population growth projected to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine will see the largest relative declines in population size over the same time period, with losses of 20% or more. The populations of 61 countries are expected to decline by 1% due to low fertility levels. About two-thirds of the world’s population lives where fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, which is about the level required for zero growth for a population with low mortality rates. Immigration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries, while birth rates will be the main driver in low- and middle-income countries.
Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to show that only declining fertility rates led to slower population growth, not declining fertility rates and increasing immigration rates.
