In a blog titled: “What do policy makers do all day?” – a nod to children’s author Richard Scarry – presented his approach to working in government earlier this year. “The way I now think of a policy professional is as an ‘orchestrator,’” he said. Mills, who previously oversaw labor market policy and before that electricity market reform, now faces the job of orchestrating his life. His appointment reflects growing concerns about Britain’s energy supplies in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Monday, Russia shuts down Nord Stream 1, its main natural gas pipeline to Germany. The shutdown has been billed as a planned 10-day maintenance period, but there are fears the pipeline will not reopen, plunging Europe’s biggest manufacturing nation into an energy crisis. Although Britain is not dependent on Russian gas, if the supply is cut, prices will rise even more. National Grid is committed to unveiling its winter plans this month, with the annual exercise starting from autumn 2020 due to Covid. Britain’s existing emergency power plans are largely designed for outages caused by massive storms or system faults rather than supply shortages. But officials must face the possibility of shortages stretching into months. In a “plausible worst-case scenario”, millions of households could be forced to reduce consumption during peak periods. Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng looked on as he sat next to tartan-clad Centrica boss Chris O’Shea for a photo last month. The owner of British Gas had just signed a deal with Norway’s Equinor for enough gas for 4.5 million homes over the next three winters. But O’Shea and Kwarteng now have a different deal to sort out, over the Rough gas storage site in the North Sea. Centrica closed it in 2017 but has now applied to reopen it. Subscribe to the Business Today daily email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter @BusinessDesk A source said any deal would depend on price guarantees for Centrica. The government will seek not to overburden taxpayers with the cost of unpopular fossil fuels. Storage facilities typically make money by buying gas cheaply in the summer and selling it at higher prices in the winter. However, unusually high prices this summer have undermined that model. Kwarteng has also been forced to switch to coal. Britain has pledged to phase out the fuel by 2024, but the government has signed deals with EDF and Drax to extend the lives of coal plants until this winter, with the companies paying a fee and the cost charge consumers’ bills. Ministers hope to secure a similar deal with Germany’s Uniper to extend the life of coal operations in Nottinghamshire within weeks. Boosting the nuclear supply is not so simple. In May, France’s EDF said time had run out to ensure it was safe to extend the life of Hinkley Point B in Somerset. One unit closed this week and another is due to close on August 1st. They provided enough energy to power 1.5 million homes. Its sister station, Hinkley Point C, is not expected to open until 2027 due to construction delays. As for renewables, noisy conditions or bright conditions this winter could boost the contribution of the small but increasingly important energy source. The business department held talks last week with manufacturers that use large amounts of energy. Discussions are believed to have assessed current energy use, changing shift patterns and potential three-hour outages. “The starting point is always to insulate consumers from any disruption,” said a source involved in the scenario planning. Some manufacturers are already exempt if outages for three-hour periods cause “substantial economic damage”. It is understood that steel plants, where coal-fired blast furnaces are continuously operating, may be exempt from any future shutdowns. If all measures to protect consumers from outages have been exhausted, officials can use “shutdowns”, during which the electrical voltage is reduced. For households, this means lights may flicker more often. In the most difficult circumstances, the government may turn to “rotational disengagement”. This measure divides the country into power regions that could experience power outages of up to three hours at a time with increasing levels of frequency depending on the severity of the shortages. The printed rota initially looks like a chessboard, with a black square for each area each day and no area closed at the same time. At its worst – “level 18 disconnect”, the scenario of a week-long national shutdown disaster – it just shows a completely black timeline. A “protected area list,” under laws enacted during the miners’ strikes of the 1970s, describes buildings of “national or regional critical need,” protected from closure because of “potential catastrophic damage to high-value facilities ». It includes airports, hospitals and water treatment facilities. Power stations can use “black starts” – where diesel generators slowly restart the unit – if they are hit by outages. If a quick boost of power is needed, the fastest source of electricity in the UK is Dinorwig, a picturesque pumped hydroelectric plant in north Wales. Nicknamed “Electric Mountain”, the secluded lake has six pump-turbine units housed in its main cavern, which can ramp up from standby to 1.32 gigawatts of capacity in 12 seconds. A key question for Mills will be whether to ask households to change their habits. The International Energy Agency said in March that Europeans should lower their thermostats by 1C to save gas and reduce dependence on Russian imports. Under one scheme, trialled by Octopus Energy and approved by National Grid, consumers could even be paid to use less energy during peak hours. Households could be paid up to £6 per kilowatt hour in credit instead of paying £28.34 per kilowatt hour. Other options remain on the table, such as encouraging people to wrap up, insulate their homes or even rationing hot water, as the city of Hamburg is considering. Digging through his tool bag, Mills has some help, but few easy options.
