Comment Records are being broken in Europe as a spell of extreme heat and humidity brings dangerous conditions, prompting weather warnings across Britain, France, Spain and Portugal. Temperatures have soared above 110 degrees (43 Celsius) in the Iberian Peninsula and the UK is set to see its hottest temperature on record early next week. Red warnings for “extreme” heat have been issued in parts of the UK for the first time on record. Britain’s Met Office is describing the situation as a “national emergency”, warning that the heat will have “widespread impacts on people and infrastructure”. The red warning covers much of central, north, east and south-east England, including London, on both Monday and Tuesday. “For the first time, temperatures of 40°C [104 Fahrenheit] have been forecast,” the Met Office wrote. Last month was one of the hottest Junes on record, reports say A somewhat less severe orange heat warning surrounds the red warning and covers much of the rest of England and Wales, extending north into southern Scotland. The heat set to swelter over the UK has increased over Portugal, Spain and France. After temperatures soared to 113 degrees (45 Celsius) on Thursday, five of Portugal’s 18 regions are under red warnings on Friday, with highs of more than 110 degrees predicted in some areas. Most of Spain and southern France are also under warnings, with Météo-France writing that the heat will “threaten” everyone — “even [people] In good health.” The intense heat is combining with ongoing drought to create what Copernicus, a climate monitoring agency, is calling a “very extreme” fire risk for the Iberian Peninsula, as well as Greece. BBC News reports that dozens of fires are raging in Portugal, requiring more than 3,500 firefighters to battle them. The agency wrote that more than 10,000 people have been evacuated from France’s Gironde region. Spain’s health ministry has confirmed 84 heat-related deaths. It’s worth noting that air conditioning—common in the United States—is rare in parts of northern and western Europe because extreme heat of this kind is unusual. In the UK, for example, where residents are bracing for highs in the mid-90s early next week, the average high for mid-July is in the 70s. Unrelenting heat wave in Texas and Southern Plains to worsen next week The UK will see its hottest weather on Monday and into Tuesday. That’s when temperatures could reach a very rare number – 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit). The highest recorded temperature for the UK is 101.7 degrees (38.7 Celsius), which was set in Cambridge in 2019. “There is currently a 50% chance of seeing temperatures above 40°C and an 80% chance of seeing a new maximum temperature reached,” Met Office chief meteorologist Paul Gundersen said in an online news release. The Met Office is forecasting high temperatures of 95 (35C) and 97C (36C) in London on Monday and Tuesday. Weather.com, meanwhile, is calling for London to hit 98 degrees on Monday and 97 on Tuesday. the average afternoon high in July is 74 degrees. Readings above 84 are rare. “Nights are also likely to be extremely hot, especially in urban areas,” Gudersen said. “[I]It is important that people plan for the heat and consider changing their routine. This level of heat can have adverse health effects.” The Met Office, usually mincing its words, didn’t mince words when it identified human-caused climate change as a factor in the potentially overwhelming heat. “Chances of seeing 40°C [104 degrees] Days in the UK could be up to 10 times more likely in the current climate than in a natural climate unaffected by human influence,” said Nikos Christidis, climate performance scientist at the Met Office. “The probability of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in any given year is also increasing rapidly and, even with current commitments to reduce emissions, such extremes could occur every 15 years in the 2100 climate.” A Level 4 UK Health Safety Executive for heat-health has been posted to raise awareness of extreme temperatures. “This alert level is used when a heatwave is so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend beyond the health and social care system,” the Met Office wrote. “At this level, the disease can occur among people who are fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups.” The worst of the heat is yet to hit France, with temperatures likely to peak on Monday. Some weather models even simulate high temperatures approaching 116.6 degrees (47 Celsius), though this is likely occult. In any case, it is possible that some residents of southern France near the Spanish border could see readings in the 105 to 110 degree (40 to 43 Celsius) range. This is in line with forecasts of 107.6 degrees (42 Celsius) made by Météo-France, the country’s weather service. The agency tweeted that Monday has the potential to be one of the hottest on record across France. The record would be broken if the national average temperature – a national calculation that includes the average high and low temperatures for a day across the country – exceeds 84.9 degrees (29.4 Celsius). Extreme heat is hitting Europe with Seville reaching 41C, while France and Germany are expected to see similar highs. Italy is under drought orders. Portugal is on fire with limited hydropower. These are no longer temperature anomalies. This is the new normal. pic.twitter.com/hKKMpy9vT2 — Peter Dynes (@PGDynes) July 12, 2022 Météo-France also noted the role of human-induced climate change in intensifying the current heat wave. He cited a historic episode in July 2019, when the temperature in Paris soared to an unprecedented 109 degrees. “Human influence on the climate has multiplied the probability of this event by at least 20 and made this type of event 2.1°C warmer [3.8 degrees]”, tweeted Météo-France. “The same calculation for the current heat wave would give close figures.” Weather.com is calling for Paris to reach 103 degrees on Monday and 104 on Tuesday, compared to the average mid-to-late July high of about 75 degrees. In Spain, an “extreme risk” of heat has prompted a red alert in two provinces — Vegas del Guadiana and Mino de Ourense — with highs of up to 111 degrees (44 Celsius) predicted. Spain has 50 provinces. The rest are mostly under orange “important” heat alerts and less yellow alerts. In Madrid, the high is forecast to hover near record highs or around 105 degrees (41 Celsius) by the weekend. What does excessive heat do to the human body? The heat has gripped the Iberian Peninsula so far, with a number of records being broken there. Here’s a look at how high temperatures have risen since Thursday (records broken earlier in the week are available in a previous article):

Several monthly record highs were set on Friday, according to Maximiliano Herrera, who monitors global temperatures. El Retiro Park in Madrid failed to drop below 79.2 degrees (26.2 degrees Celsius) on Thursday morning, the hottest overnight temperature ever recorded there. Its afternoon high of 105.3 degrees (40.7 Celsius) was the highest ever recorded since August 14, 2021. Ourense saw its highest temperature ever at 113.4 degrees (45.2 Celsius) on Thursday. That surpasses Tuesday’s record temperature, when Ourense soared to 109.9 degrees (43.3 Celsius). The previous record was 108.7 degrees (42.6 Celsius) on July 20, 1990. Zamora jumped to 107.2 degrees (41.8 Celsius) on Thursday, a record. Navacerrada reached a record high of 92.1 degrees (33.4 Celsius) on Thursday. Seville has hit at least 105 degrees (40.6 Celsius) for eight days in a row. it was 111 degrees (43.9 Celsius) on Thursday.

Two weather stations inside Nîmes, in southern France, topped 104 degrees (40 Celsius) for the first time on record in July on Friday. Arquettes-en-Val climbed to 101.9 degrees (38.8 Celsius) on Thursday, setting a new monthly record for July. It surpasses the July record of 99.9 degrees (37.7 Celsius) set on Tuesday. Granès climbed to 100.4 degrees (38 Celsius) on Thursday, a record for July. Cuanes-Minervois reached 99.32 degrees (37.4 Celsius) on Thursday, setting a new July record. Alzon reached 97 degrees (36.1 Celsius) on Thursday, setting a new July record. It beat the previous record, set in 2006, by just 0.1 degrees Celsius.

Herrera tweeted that “several all-time records were broken” on Thursday – with readings as high as 113 degrees (45.2C). A report of a high temperature of 117 degrees (47 Celsius) is disputed. Bragança reached its hottest temperature ever recorded – 106.3 degrees (41.3 Celsius) – Thursday. The city has been setting records every day since Monday.

What causes heat? Driving the heat is something called a “low cutoff,” or a low-pressure system that has been detached from the jet stream. It is analogous to putting a boat through a pond and seeing an eddy pour out of the oar and continue to spin aimlessly. In this case, the low is a self-sustaining vortex of counter-clockwise rotating winds wrapped around a cold high-altitude lobe swirling about a few hundred miles southwest of Portugal over the open northeast Atlantic. Because it is no longer nested in a dip in the jet stream and then transported from west to east, there is nothing to really chase it. As a result, the cutoff low will spend days sitting in place and rotating, with southerly winds on the eastern side of the system pumping African heat north towards Western Europe and the UK While the heat will gradually ease from west to east in Europe next week, it marks the latest of several European heatwave events that have been exacerbated by human-induced climate change. While…