Enjoy the summer rays while you can — a full Russian winter is headed for Europe. Even as fighting continues to rage in Ukraine, the war is already being felt across the continent in the form of rising food prices, fears of gas shortages and worries about the economy. And with Russian President Vladimir Putin looking ready to use food, fuel and fertilizer as weapons of war against Western democracies arming Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Moscow, things could quickly turn worse. “It was the harsh Russian winters that stopped Napoleon,” said political scientist Ivan Krastev. “It was the harsh Russian winters that stopped Hitler in 1941. Now [Putin’s] The idea is to make winter hard in Europe.” As the war drags on – or even escalates in ferocity – experts predict European governments will come under pressure from poorer, hungrier and colder voters. Add to that a potential sharp influx of refugees from a global food crisis, heat waves that have parched swaths of Europe’s farmland and the risk of new COVID infections and disrupted supply chains this winter — and it’s no wonder some are asking how long Western governments can maintain their unity and resolve. Volunteers collected food parcels at Bradford Central Food Bank | Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images “You’re going to see a lot more pressure for Europeans to say, ‘Let’s stop the war now,’” said Krastev, who chairs the Center for Liberal Strategies think tank. A survey this spring commissioned by the European Parliament found that nearly 60 percent of EU citizens said they were not prepared to face increases in food or energy costs. Some 59 percent agreed that “European values such as freedom and democracy should be a priority, even if this affects prices and the cost of living.” But the report noted that support was highest among the most financially secure – and fell below 50 percent among those who sometimes or regularly had difficulty paying the bills. “You could end up with a lot of people at a disadvantage, as well as a certain number of people on the streets protesting job losses or throwing stones at politicians in yellow [and] Extinction Rebellion-style protests,” said Tim Benton, director of the society and environment program at Chatham House. The question is, to what extent are European governments prepared to withstand a Russian economic onslaught?
“Energy as a weapon”
As a huge exporter of food, fertilizers, oil and natural gas, Russia enjoys significant leverage in the European economy. This will become more pronounced as temperatures drop and frozen households begin to compete with manufacturers for natural gas. Already, 12 EU countries have experienced a complete or partial cut-off of Russian gas. And this week, Russia shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that supplies gas to Germany — as well as France, Italy and Austria — frustrating European efforts to stockpile for the winter. The planned maintenance is supposed to last until July 21, but there is growing concern in national capitals that Moscow will find an excuse to extend the shutdown, perhaps indefinitely. Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, warned this month of a “political nightmare” that would threaten social cohesion if natural gas supplies are so scarce that they have to be rationed by the government. And on Sunday, French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said he believed a “total cutoff of Russian gas” was “the most likely option.” In Germany, politicians have prepared gas contingency plans that could dictate which companies should be shut down first. Local authorities are dimming street lights and lowering temperatures in outdoor pools. Berlin is also considering an impressive €9 billion bailout of utility giant Uniper, Germany’s biggest gas importer. Some EU politicians have struck a defiant note. “Putin is using energy as a weapon and will try to divide us, unsuccessfully,” said the bloc’s Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton. The EU has passed new rules calling on countries to load up natural gas in time for the winter, with reserves currently at 62%. But with alternative pipelines already full and LNG imports with limited port facilities, there is little capacity to cover a potential shortfall – meaning governments will be forced to ask consumers to reduce demand or make drastic sectoral cuts cuts. In the event of a Russian cut, politicians would likely start by cutting non-essential sectors such as the automotive sector, followed by other industries, then social services and finally home heating, according to Simone Tagliapietra, senior energy analyst at think tank Bruegel. . “This will be a very difficult political test,” he says. “I think it would be very difficult for our governments.” In Ukraine, harvesting near a crater in Kramatosk and burnt fields in the east of the country. In Hungary, a farmer in Pusztamarot | Miguel Medina and Janos Kummer/Getty Images Those who find it hardest to pay their energy bills will inevitably be the “most vulnerable”, said Kieran Pradeep, co-ordinator at the Right to Energy coalition advocacy group. But many middle-class Europeans could also be pushed into energy poverty for the first time. At best, spending a disproportionate amount of income on utilities can cause severe “mental anguish,” Pradeep said. But it can also lead to people disconnecting from meters in some countries such as the UK – and putting themselves at risk of freezing to death. The risk of Putin completely cutting off natural gas to the EU is “very likely,” according to Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie think tank. “[Putin’s] The hope is that there will be more political protests and then the unity around supporting Ukraine will dissolve.”
“Putin’s Hunger Plan”
On the food front, prices rose sharply after Russia blocked Ukraine, a major supplier of grain and sunflower oil. World food prices have eased slightly, but are still extremely high compared to this time last year. And the worst could be yet to come if the price of fertilizers – linked to the cost of natural gas – remains high in the coming seasons. Global agricultural prices have risen by 30% since Russia’s invasion, with food and soft drink price inflation at 10% in May, according to an EU market report. Higher fertilizer costs mean that farmers around the world will use them sparingly and therefore produce lower yields, possibly escalating an affordability crisis into a full-blown supply emergency. A protest against rising oil prices blocks the exit of Ferrybridge petrol station in Leeds, England | Cameron Smith/Getty Images Food prices are not expected to fall from their current high levels until December 2023, said Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. As a net food exporter, Europe is better insulated from poorer countries in Africa and the Middle East, where governments are more dependent on Russian and Ukrainian imports of staples such as wheat, and consumers spend a much larger proportion of their wages on stay fed. “I certainly would not predict or advocate that we will see famine [in Europe] but certainly prices could go even higher,” said John Baffes, senior economist at the World Bank. Globally, the food system is on a knife’s edge: Recent UN figures show that the number of people suffering from hunger increased by 50 million in 2021 compared to 2020, and this number will only increase due to the outbreak of war between two of bread.
Left, gas compression station in Ihtiman, Bulgaria | Nicolay Doychinov and Christophe Verhaegen/AFP via Getty Images About 17 percent of the world’s traded calories are blocked because of export controls put in place by fearful or opportunistic governments, said the EBRD’s Javorcik. If Russia follows suit and imposes a strict ban on wheat exports in a year expecting a bumper harvest, it could make things significantly worse. According to some reports, Russia deliberately destroyed wheat fields in Ukraine this month as the harvest begins. The worst-case scenario from a European perspective is if the food crisis triggers a new wave of mass migration, putting further pressure on political systems. Analysts, including the head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, have drawn parallels between now and the bread price riots that preceded the 2011 Arab Spring. “Putin’s hunger plan is intended to create refugees from North Africa and the Middle East, areas normally fed by Ukraine,” Yale historian Timothy Snyder wrote earlier this month. “This would destabilize the EU.”
“Perennial Crisis”
Russian pressure could not come at a worse time for the continent. Europe is still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, when economic shutdowns wreaked havoc on the global economy. After two years of turmoil, the recovery — to the extent it has existed — has stalled at first due to supply chain disruptions and concerns about the effects of war. Another dampening effect is expected from the European Central Bank, which is preparing to raise interest rates next week – the first increase in more than a decade – to combat raging eurozone inflation. Signs of an economic slowdown are already evident, with manufacturing output contracting for the first time in two years in June and the services sector also slowing…
