Comment For nearly a year, a kitchen cabinet of Donald Trump confidantes told the former president not to announce his 2024 comeback bid before the midterm elections, arguing it could be a roadblock for 2022 candidates and would be blamed if the Republicans underperformed. But Trump has continued to push regularly for an early announcement in private meetings as potential 2024 rivals grow more aggressive amid signs of waning support among his base. Now a growing number of allies are urging him to follow his instincts as a way to shore up his standing in the party and increase turnout to help the GOP take the House and Senate next year. The former president is now eyeing a September announcement, according to two Trump advisers who, along with others interviewed for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private conversations. One insider put the odds at “70-30 he announces before the midterms.” And others said he may still decide to announce earlier than September. Trump has begun talking with advisers about who should run a campaign, and his team has instructed others to have an electronic device ready for a campaign if he announces soon, two people familiar with the matter said. He has also started meeting top sponsors to talk about the 2024 race, one of the people said, while traveling to various places around the country. “If Trump is going to run, the sooner he gets in and talks about winning the next election, the better,” said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R.C.), who recently golfed with Trump at New Jersey. “He will refocus his attention – less complaining, more about the future.” Graham embraced an argument once dismissed within much of the party, arguing that Democrats will use Trump’s unpopularity among certain groups of voters to try to boost turnout no matter what he does. If he enters the race soon, they argue, he will be in a better position to boost turnout on the Republican side in the midterms. “You might as well get the benefit if you’re going to get the lashes,” said Tony Fabrizio, a Trump pollster who is working for several Senate candidates this cycle. “If you want to turn on the base and take out the base, no one does it better than Trump.” Candidate challenges, key signs have Republicans worried about Senate chances Others have argued that Trump’s direct entry into the midterm campaign will only play into Democrats’ plans to make the election a referendum on the extremism of Trump’s Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement. Republicans believe they are on track for a midterm year, the result of mass dissatisfaction with inflation, President Biden’s job performance and the direction of the country. A spokesman for Trump did not respond to a request for comment. Public and internal party polls in several key states show Trump trailing even Biden, who has suffered a historic collapse in public support since taking office. Trump lost a recent hypothetical vote against Biden in New Hampshire and is trailing Biden favorably in Wisconsin, both places where the Senate is contested this fall. A May presentation of donors to Herschel Walker’s Georgia Senate campaign, obtained by the Washington Post, showed Biden and Trump with similar favorability ratings in the 40s, about a half-dozen points apart. below those of Walker and his opponent, Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D-Ga.). In early 2021, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Battleground Survey found that Trump’s unfavorable ratings were 15 points higher than his favorable ratings in key areas. Trump has also lost ground among some GOP voters, though he remains easily the most formidable Republican primary candidate, according to public opinion polls. Trump’s decision to enter the race, some in the party fear, could revive momentum in the final months of the House and Senate campaign. “Of all the selfish things he does every minute of the day, that would probably be the biggest,” said one prominent Republican strategist, speaking on condition of anonymity to offer an honest assessment. “Everything we do and don’t talk about the economy will be a disaster.” After earlier threatening to launch his campaign in July, Trump has decided in recent weeks to stage a series of what his aides dub political speeches as he continues to plan the structure of his next campaign. He gave a speech on crime Friday in Las Vegas, where he resurfaced his old idea that drug dealers should be punished with the death penalty. Further talks are planned. “With Republican victories in 2022 and 2024 we can restore tough-on-crime policies and more,” Trump said in Las Vegas. “Leave our police alone. Let them do their job. They know what to do. Let them do it.” Trump began talking privately about an upcoming presidential campaign announcement last August in response to Biden’s chaotic troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Several advisers have told Trump not to act, as a campaign announcement in early 2024 would limit his ability to access funds to his Save America PAC, which pays for his staff and events, trigger equal-time rules on television and would allow Democrats to redefine the election away from an unpopular Biden presidency. The private discussions succeeded in delaying an announcement, but did not deter Trump from continuing to push. In recent months, opponents also looking into the 2024 campaigns have received increased attention, and the investigation into the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol has raised awareness of his efforts to overturn the 2020 election outcome. Trump has also faced other investigations, particularly in New York and Georgia, which only accelerated his desire to run, advisers said. Democrats, meanwhile, have developed a party-wide strategy aimed at labeling Republican candidates in close elections as “MAGA Republicans,” a phrase they’ve tested in polls as off-putting to swing voters. In recent weeks, they’ve argued that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn nationwide abortion rights, the GOP’s continued resistance to some gun regulations despite mass shootings and the ongoing investigation into the riot on Capitol Hill point to a broader extremism across the GOP. Party. “The January 6th hearings have shaken America. It’s real that we’re seeing movement in those numbers,” said John Anzalone, a Biden pollster. “If Donald Trump gets in before the midterms, every Republican congressman and candidate will have to answer these questions.” Democrats hope, for example, that Republican candidates in competitive races will be forced to say whether they support Trump in the 2024 presidential primary — an option that could alienate either supporters of the former president or otherwise persuasive voters who voted against in two consecutive elections. The hallmark of Trump’s politics. “Senators as well as Senate candidates have told me recently that voters are ready to turn the page on Trump and that it’s more of a headwind than a tailwind these days,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor who met with number of Republican Senators. Several House Republican strategists remain optimistic that a Trump announcement would not undermine the party in November. Republicans won a net gain of 14 seats in the 2020 congressional elections, despite Trump appearing on the same ballot and losing the national popular vote by about 7 million votes. Polls have shown that economic concerns and inflationary pressures dominate the electoral landscape to the detriment of Democratic candidates. Some people around Trump have warned that he could be making a mistake if he doesn’t try to get more involved in the midterms. National polls last year, including surveys by the Pew Research Center, CNN and the New York Times, found that only about half of Republicans and GOP voters want Trump to be the party’s nominee in 2024. “When Republicans have these huge wins in the midterms, if President Trump hasn’t announced in 2024 yet, the haters and establishment Republicans and their allies in the media will say they can win 2024 without him and that the party he needs to go and find someone else,” said Jason Miller, a longtime spokesman and consultant who now runs the social network Gettr. “They’re going to try to keep that narrative going, and Democrats will be happy to reinforce it.” The shadow race is on for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination But others, including Republican National Committee Chairwoman Rona McDaniel and longtime adviser Kellyanne Conway, have repeatedly warned Trump against announcing a bid now. Both have said he doesn’t want to be responsible for any losses in the Senate, and McDaniel has told others the party will stop paying his legal bills if he runs. “Some people want to take credit when candidates win and blame him when candidates lose, but President Trump knows he can’t control the quality and energy of a candidate or his campaign,” Conway said. Trump continues to dominate early polls for the 2024 Republican primary, although potential rivals such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis have received encouraging signs at GOP events by winning informal polls. A growing group of candidates, including his former vice president Mike Pence, Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark) and Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, have made advanced plans to campaign. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has also left open the possibility of a 2024 presidential campaign, telling others recently that he is “humbled” by the attention. A group tied to Sen. Tim Scott (RS.C.), an often-discussed candidate for president or vice president, has launched about $2 million in TV ads in key states like Georgia and Nevada featuring him …
