The latest report from BC’s independent COVID-19 modeling team, released Wednesday, says the province is already facing a third Omicron wave, driven by the highly contagious BA.5 variant.
Read more: COVID-19 cases in BC hospitals rise by nearly 100, admissions rise for 2nd week
“Anyone with any health concerns should definitely be boosted if they’re eligible and can get one now,” said UBC modeling team member and mathematical biologist Sarah Otto. “Our next wave is not going to be a falling wave. It will be a summer wave.” Story continues below ad On Tuesday, the World Health Organization warned that the virus is “spreading freely and countries are not effectively managing the burden of the disease” and that the BA.5 sub-variant is spreading at a “very high level”. The BC report found that the BA.5 variant currently makes up about 80 percent of all circulating cases in the province. He predicts the latest wave will peak sometime in August, but Otto said predicting the number of cases or hospitalizations is particularly difficult this time for several reasons.
Read more: COVID-19 cases in BC hospitals rise by nearly 100, admissions rise for 2nd week
These include questions about how much immunity British Columbians still have from boosters or infections from other variants, along with unknowns about BA.5’s virulence and ability to evade immunity. Trending Stories
Canadian health care on the brink of disaster, nurses say Rogers will refund customers for 5 days of service in response to a major outage
“Given how many people have had Omicron recently, we’re probably talking about BA.5 (wave) which is more like our second BA.2 wave in terms of the number of cases,” Otto said. “My concern is that we’re actually going to have more hospitalizations and deaths because our most vulnerable people, our seniors, haven’t been vaccinated for a much longer time… Only I think about 50 percent of our 70-plus people have been boosted, and that’s just not enough protection.” Story continues below ad As of last Thursday, there were 369 cases of COVID-19 in the hospital — a jump of nearly 100 from the previous week. Hospital admissions stopped falling in the province last month and have risen in each of the last two reporting periods. British Columbia health officials held a briefing Friday encouraging people to get a fourth shot this fall, but admitted people could get one earlier if they felt they needed it. Story continues below ad BC officials suggested that vaccines available in the fall would be better designed to deal with the latest variants.
Read more: Omicron BA.5 COVID sub-variant spreading at ‘very intense level’, WHO warns
Otto said with cases and hospitalizations rising and evidence of the spread of Omicron BA.5 from Eastern Canada offering a window into the future, people should start taking precautions again now and consider a reminder if they feel they are in danger. “We’re going to see increasing demand for hospitals and rising death rates in the next month or two — but we also know exercise, we know what works: wear masks, effective N95s, increase ventilation, and party outdoors as much as possible ( as you can),” he said. “Don’t wait for that special Omicron amplifier, get one now. In the future, your next installment, that will be that particular installment.” © 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
