We cannot know exactly on which date this important event will occur. There are too many people in these two demographic behemoths, too many births and deaths every day, to be sure exactly when China will lose its demographic crown. Some suggest it has already happened. Inevitably the question will be asked – does it matter? China is vastly richer than India, at present, and much more powerful militarily. The last time the two countries went to war, more than half a century ago, the Chinese proved their mettle, and the gap can only widen since then. And in any case, a war in the Himalayas is not a likely prospect. The world’s politicians have other more immediate and pressing issues to worry about. But in the long run, China’s demographic decline matters. China is facing a shrinking working-age population. when the same happened in Japan, it fell into decades of economic stagnation. And it’s happening in China while the country is still relatively poor. People both inside and outside China will blame the infamous One-Child Policy, and the Communist Party deserves to be blamed for its heartless misanthropy. But in fact, China’s fertility rate was already falling before the policy was even introduced – from about six to three children during the 1970s. It has collapsed in Chinese communities not subject to the restrictions, such as Hong Kong and Taiwan. And indeed, it’s not just the Chinese. Japan and Korea have long had sub-replacement fertility rates and now this has spread even to poorer Asian countries like Thailand. Back in China, the loosening of birth controls appears to have had little, if any, effect. It turns out that the One Child Policy was an ugly piece of political coercion on top of a huge, fundamental social change. Already the median Chinese citizen is older than the median American, nearly fifteen years older since 1990. As the number of young people plummets, the number of elderly people rises. China is about to run out of workers and, unlike many countries in the West, opening the floodgates to immigration will not be an option. China is simply too big for the rest of the world to provide enough new workers. And it is still too poor to attract so many immigrants. The rest of the world is about to see something unfold in China, which in terms of scale and speed is quite unprecedented in world history. But while we’ll look at it, we shouldn’t get too complacent. Europe can afford to attract immigrants to fill gaps in its labor market – if it wants to – but it too is aging and its population is shrinking. And even India seems to be on the brink of sub-replacement fertility, though it will take a few decades to hit. At present, only sub-Saharan Africa is a real exception. When it comes to population aging and decline, don’t ask for whom the bell tolls. as things are, it is a toll for almost all of us.
