OTTAWA – Patrick Brown’s campaign says there is a “strong chance” Brown’s efforts to challenge the federal Conservatives’ decision to drop him from the leadership race will fail and he will vote for Jean Sarres to lead the party.
On Tuesday afternoon, the campaign team shared a statement with the media that it planned to send to supporters after a call the night before that Brown had with more than 100 organizers and others who helped his bid.
The campaign says Brown continues to pursue “all legitimate options” to appeal the party’s decision to remove him from the race – but for the first time admitted that will likely not happen before party members are set to choose new leader on September 10.
He says Brown was clear: he would support any leader except longtime MP Pierre Poiliev, who was his main opponent.
His campaign says Brown plans to vote for Charest.  He has encouraged supporters to make their own choice about which of the five remaining candidates would be the best leader.
Brown’s campaign says he also considers Leslyn Lewis a “friend” and applauded Scott Aitchison for his policy stances on fighting a controversial secularism law in Quebec, which Brown also opposes.
“Killing our campaign does not kill the vision we have for the party,” the note to supporters read.
“We’ll make it eventually”
His campaign’s message to supporters comes after John Reynolds, a former congressman who served as Brown’s campaign co-chairman, came out in support of Charest.
But whether Brown’s supporters — many of whom appear new to the party — choose to follow suit is not necessarily so clear.
“It’s all going to depend on how much work (Brown) and his organizers want to keep putting into this race,” said political strategist Chris Chapin, who previously worked in Brown’s office when he was the official opposition leader in Ontario.
In a statement released by Charest’s campaign, Reynolds said the former Quebec premier was the best choice to unify the party when his divisions within the caucus and the broader movement are on full display.
“We’ve had a lot of negative publicity lately, so we need to offer Canadians a positive, unified and inclusive Conservative party with a new, time-tested leader,” Reynolds said.
Reynolds did not mention Brown or the disqualified candidate’s intended appeal by name.
But since Brown’s sudden firing a week ago, the situation has caught the attention of top party members, along with many members and some organizers in other campaigns.
The chairman of the committee that voted to drop Brown from the race said he did so on the recommendation of the party leader, based on the allegation that Brown may have violated federal election laws.
A longtime organizer has since come forward as making the allegation, saying Brown was involved in a deal that saw a private company pay for her campaign work.
After his expulsion, Brown said his team had done nothing wrong and accused the party of refusing to provide full details of the incident when first asked to explain.  He has also hired high-profile lawyer Marie Henein to mount an appeal.
But if Brown is not reinstated, what happens to the supporters he signed up as new party members is one of the most important outstanding issues in the race.
His campaign said it sold 150,000 members, although party headquarters has not confirmed that number or any others released by the five other campaigns.
By comparison, longtime MP Pierre Poilievre said he sold 312,000 memberships.
Brown’s name will still appear on the final ballot, which the party will use to select a leader by asking members to rank the candidates from their first to last choice.
That means supporters could still choose Brown as their top choice, and so the party is finalizing a plan to share with members what will happen to the votes that might go to him.
At a press conference earlier Tuesday in Brampton, Ont., where he has yet to reveal whether he plans to seek a second term as mayor, Brown deflected questions about his federal campaign.  He said the matter was with his legal counsel.
Brown’s strategy in the race was to try to recruit new members to the party, rather than trying to curry favor with incumbents—who, he thought, were more likely to support Pulyev and his populist message.
He aimed to sign up thousands of immigrants and newcomers by promising to create a more inclusive party.  He became an ally on specific issues they care about, from improving cricket infrastructure to immigration reform.
How much of Brown’s vote goes to Charest will depend on whether Brown and his campaign team work to convince supporters to switch their allegiance to the former Quebec premier, Chapin said.
“These members signed up for Patrick,” he said.
Because Brown ran a campaign that often appeared to contradict some of the party’s positions — for example, delisting the Tamil Tigers as a terrorist entity — Chapin said it would be difficult to sway supporters into supporting a different candidate who did not make such pledges. .
Party spokesman Jaroslav Baran said that as of Tuesday, more than 280,000 ballots had been delivered, with another large batch scheduled to be mailed by the end of the week.
While headquarters has not confirmed specific membership sales from each campaign, it has recorded a voting base of more than 670,000 members, more than double what it had for the 2020 leadership race.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on July 12, 2022.