This year’s Open may have a stellar field, but there is a big push behind a finite list of names to capture the Claret Jug. Most notable among them is Rory McIlroy, who enters having played some of the best golf of his career this season as he seeks to capture the sport’s most coveted trophies at the Home of Golf. England’s Matthew Fitzpatrick is aiming for a rare US Open-Open double, while Xander Schauffele is coming off a Scottish Open victory that gives him plenty of confidence. And then there’s Tiger Woods, who, despite being heavily odds-on, wants to win his third Claret jug at St. Andrews in what may be his last legitimate chance to conquer the Old Lady again. Add it all up and it looks like we’re in for a wild Open Championship full of unexpected twists but also plenty of familiar names at the top of the leaderboard. Make sure you read the Open TV schedule and coverage guide so you don’t miss a second of the action all week. So what will happen this week in St. Andrews? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we try to project who will win and what will happen in the final big of the season. Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
2022 Open Expert Picks, Predictions
Kyle Porter, senior golf writer
Winner — Jordan Spieth (16-1): Is Spieth at his best this Open? No, it doesn’t. Through his last 20 rounds, he ranks just 37th in that field in ball striking. As of January 1, he is 31st overall in strokes gained hitting. He’s not playing at the same clip as last year, when he finished second to Collin Morikawa. However, the golf played at St. Andrews isn’t the same golf he plays most of the year, and Spieth has been crushed in Opens throughout his career. His game and mind were made for this tournament, and while the Renaissance Club last week is not a good facsimile of the Old Course, Spieth is finding freedom with his game on this side of the pond and waiting seven years for to redeem the five he made. on the Road Hole in 2015 to fend off a shot at the grand slam.
Sleeper — Seamus Power (80-1): This is perhaps a little too deep on the odds table (I wanted to go with Sam Burns at 40-1), but it’s hard to ignore what Power has done in the majors this year. He ranks sixth in total scoring among the 13 golfers to make every major cut and trails the top 20 at the PGA Championship and US Open. At age 35, this is his first Open Championship during a stretch where he’s playing the best golf he’s ever played. Majors are so different from other events, and while Power’s overall numbers aren’t great compared to other top players, it’s clear he can play in the big boys. At 80-1, the risk is worth the reward.
Top 10 lock — Rory McIlroy: The four-time major winner has never finished in the top 10 at all four majors in the same year, but that’s in play after threatening but ultimately falling just short of the top three in 2022. No one has more top 10 in the last five Opens since McIlroy and rarely has he been so confident about the state of his game. He could get on the wrong side of the draw, of course, but it would be surprising to me if he didn’t finish in the top 10 this coming Sunday.
Star who definitely won’t win — Bryson DeChambeau: He has a treacherously bad record in majors (two top 10s in 23 starts) and is even worse in Opens where he has failed to crack the top 30. as he refers to his golf genius , has not yet come very close to finding the answers to the pitches that pose the most complex problems in the sport.
Surprise Prediction — The Rating Isn’t As Outrageous As People Think: There were fears that someone would scare 59 this week, but that’s not going to happen. The course is as crisp as it is brown, and as long as the R&A lets the greens cook a little and the wind stays like Tuesday, the score will be higher than people think.
Tiger Woods Prediction — Claim: The Big Cat is hitting it pretty well, and I think somewhere that only the most triumphant champions can access, he’ll draw on some kind of reserve that carries him into Sunday. He’s bright enough to deal with only his own mind, and in his final shot at an Open in St. Andrews, he will. “I think the way the golf course is and the conditions, I could definitely see [him contending],” McIlroy said. “It’s going to be a game of chess this week and nobody has been better at playing that kind of chess game on a golf course than Tiger over the last 20 years.”
Lowest Round: 64 (-8) Winning Score: 272 (-16) Winner’s Sunday Score: 68 (-4)
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Dustin Johnson (35-1): The move to LIV Golf sent Johnson’s name on the radar, but make no mistake, the two-time major winner plays good golf. Top-10 finishes in the first two LIV Golf events marked a top-25 effort at the US Open where he found some touch on the greens. Since 2010, Johnson has six top-15 finishes in 11 Open appearances, including a T8 last season at Royal St. George’s. Finished T14 at St. Andrews in 2010, and while his T49 result in 2015 doesn’t jump off the page, he was the 18-hole and 36-hole leader in that tournament.
Sleeper — Max Homa (50-1): I’ve been watching Homa for this championship since the winter and the only concern is that he’s been paired with Tiger the first two days. If he can overcome the allure of playing golf’s oldest championship alongside his hero, Homa should be a perfect fit at St. Andrews. A formidable striker of the golf ball, he is coming off a T16 effort at the Scottish Open, where he found himself with a shot at the final nine. He’s been on a serious run in the big leagues for the last two years, and I think it could finally be his time.
Top 10 lock — Rory McIlroy: He’s one of two players to finish in the top 10 in the first three majors of the season, and I don’t see why The Open will be any different. McIlroy is playing some of his best golf since 2014 and St. Andrews fits his game perfectly. If the wedge game continues to cooperate, the four-time major winner will definitely be in contention for No. 5.
Star who definitely won’t win — Collin Morikawa: The reigning Champion Golfer of the Year just isn’t the player he was at this point last season. Morikawa just missed strokes on every tee on a green metric at the Scottish Open, marking the first time in his PGA Tour career that he has done so. He continued to struggle to find fairways and then with his irons, which will cause him problems at St. Andrews.
Surprise prediction — Brooks Koepka claims: I’m giving off serious Benedict Arnold vibes, but I really think a trio of LIV Golf players will perform well this week — Louis Oosthuizen is third. Koepka’s record at the US Open and PGA Championship often gets a lot of publicity, but his Open experience is among the best in the game with T10, T6, T39, T4 and T6 finishes since 2015. The steady, fast and windy conditions you should match four times great champion.
Tiger Woods Prediction — Backdoor top 20: A shorter space where strategy is required is right in Tiger’s current wheelhouse. The key to his chances won’t be his driver, but whether he’ll be able to stand up effectively, as we’ve seen him miss fairways with iron in hand with some regularity at Southern Hills. If he does that and avoids the awkward lies, Woods should come into the weekend and find his name on the second or third page of the leaderboard.
Lowest Round: 64 (-8) Winning Score: 260 (-18) Winner’s Sunday Score: 68 (-4)
Who will win the Open Championship and which long shots will shock the golf world? Visit SportsLine now to see the predicted leaderboard and best picks, all from the model that has stuck eight golf majors, including this year’s Masters.
Chip Patterson, writer
Winner — Cameron Smith (22-1): After an incredible start to 2022, we’ve seen Smith loosen up a bit (including a missed cut at the US Open), but he still checks too many boxes for this event ignore ability of struggling. You have to be creative and sharp with your wedges and putter in this league, especially on the Old Course. Smith has an excellent short game and is a positive value player in windy conditions. he won’t try to keep up with the big players off the tee. Smith had a poor round at the Scottish Open but still finished in the T10 thanks to three rounds of 68 or better. That tells me he is ready links and ready to win his first major championship.
Sleeper — Robert MacIntyre (80-1): Recent form hasn’t been inspiring, I’ll admit, but I’m not as focused on the three missed cuts in his last four starts as MacIntyre’s Open Championship experience and performance overall. He’s only 25, but MacIntyre has two top-10 finishes in as many Open Championship starts and hasn’t missed a cut in nine career major championship appearances. Besides those two top-10s at the Open, MacIntyre’s next best finishes were at the Masters (T12 in 2021, T23 in 2022). Strong finishes in these championships bode well for a star on the rise, and I think the Scottish native will have something special this week in St. Andrews.
Top 10 lock — Rory McIlroy: When a…
