Peter Nicholls | Reuters LONDON — The race to replace outgoing UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is wide open. Johnson resigned as leader of the Conservative Party on Thursday, finally succumbing to enormous political pressure after an unprecedented flood of government resignations and a cabinet revolt. “It’s the breaks,” Johnson said as he addressed the British public outside Downing Street. He added that he was “sad to leave the best job in the world” and admitted that “no one is absolutely necessary” in politics. The 58-year-old former London mayor has said he plans to stay on as interim prime minister while a successor is chosen, defying calls from across the political spectrum – including some in his own party – to step down immediately. Johnson’s critics have insisted he must be pushed back as soon as possible, with Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab acting as caretaker in the meantime. But other Tory lawmakers insist that replacing Johnson could create even more instability, arguing that Johnson should remain in place over the summer. The timetable for the Tory leadership contest is expected to be confirmed next week, with a new prime minister expected to be named by September.
Who will run?
The contest to succeed Johnson as leader appeared to begin even before his resignation was confirmed, with Attorney General Suella Braverman surprising many on Wednesday night by announcing her intention to run. As many as 10 candidates are expected to throw their hat in the ring, although there is currently no obvious candidate to replace Johnson. Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee and a prominent critic of Johnson, launched his bid for the leadership on Friday in the Daily Telegraph. A former soldier, Tugendhat said he hoped to answer the call as prime minister with “new energy and ideas” for the government. Other possible candidates are former Health Secretary Sajid Javid, Finance Minister Nadhim Zahawi, former Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, former Foreign Secretary Michael Gove, International Trade Secretary Penny Mordaunt , Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and even Brexiteer Steve Baker. Political analysts believe most have been secretly planning their campaigns for several weeks. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. Ian Forsyth | News Getty Images | Getty Images A YouGov snap poll asking 716 Conservative Party members who they would like to succeed Johnson found that Wallace and Mordant came out as favorites, with 13% of respondents backing each of them respectively. Sunak followed with 10% and Truss got 8%. Notably, however, a separate YouGov poll comparing the individual candidates showed that Wallace was the clear favorite among Conservative Party members to be the next party leader.
How does it work;
A party leader is first chosen by Conservative MPs and then voted in by members of the Conservative Party. To become the next party leader, candidates must have a nominator, a second and a certain number of supporters. These conditions are designed to prevent an excessively long list. Once the candidates are known, the 358 Tory MPs in parliament will whittle them down to two in a series of votes. Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, questioned the concept of the system. “I think imposing some kind of tailor-made prime minister on the country in a week or two doesn’t make a lot of sense,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday. “Of course, you could make the broader argument that simply allowing 100,000 almost exclusively white men and middle-aged or retired conservatives to decide who is the prime minister of the country is not a particularly good system and has not given us particularly good results in the recent past ». British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss leaves at the end of a cabinet meeting at Downing Street in London on July 5, 2022. Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images As for the future leader’s likely policies, Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group, said he believed the candidates would likely stick to the Tories’ 2019 manifesto pledges. These include balancing day-to-day spending with revenue – with borrowing only allowed for capital projects – and see the debt lower by the end of the five-year parliament. “In practice, this will be difficult to achieve; candidates will be under pressure to increase spending, especially on defense, a popular party promise because of the new threat posed by Russia,” Rahman said. “Policy on Ukraine itself will not change after Johnson leaves. His successor will want to remain the country’s staunchest ally. The UK will continue to oppose a ‘bad peace’ that allows Vladimir Putin to retain its territorial gains in Crimea and Donbass but high Tories privately admit they “cannot be more Ukrainian than Ukraine” and accept that they will be guided by the wishes of Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” he added.
What about the opposition?
The leader of Britain’s opposition Labor Party, Keir Starmer, has repeatedly called for Johnson to leave office, accusing the Tory party of “drowning in noise” and criticizing Johnson over the so-called “partygate” scandal and not saying the truth. The Eurasia Group’s Rahman said Labor was likely to be watching developments nervously. “Labour’s private fear is that the incoming prime minister will be greeted with relief by voters, enjoy a honeymoon period and allow the Tories to erode Labour’s average six-point lead in the polls,” Rahman said. “Starmer’s failure to build a bigger cushion while the Tories were in turmoil under Johnson may come back to haunt him. However, the country’s new leader will take over during an economic crisis that is affecting millions of voters. This it would allow Labor to run a strong “time for change message after 14 years of Tory rule until the 2024 general election”, he added.
