Leading the story: The Iran deal has not been restored, Biden is headed to the country he promised to make a “pariah” and the US consulate in Jerusalem is still closed.
- Restore the Iran deal The Iran nuclear deal remains in tatters, despite the fact that restoring it was arguably candidate Biden’s single first-tier policy goal toward the region. Standing alongside acting Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Thursday, Biden pledged not to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, while noting that he still hoped to resolve the crisis diplomatically.
As the talks have stalled, Iran has continued to accelerate its nuclear activity. Biden aides have insisted for months that the window to save the deal is closing. It’s unclear exactly what plan B might entail. Biden blasted supporters of the deal for refusing to invest much political capital to save it and for refusing to grant Iran’s request to lift Donald Trump’s largely symbolic terrorism designation for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Biden said Thursday that a US offer to rejoin the deal was already on the table, while warning Tehran “we won’t wait forever.”
- Outcasting Saudi Arabia Biden’s stance on Saudi Arabia stands in stark contrast to his promise to make the kingdom a “pariah” for human rights abuses, particularly the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Asked today if he would raise Khashoggi with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Biden demurred but said his position on the killing was “so clear” that everyone understood it.
Biden’s initial refusal to engage directly with the crown prince — and the release of an intelligence report blaming MBS for Khashoggi’s murder — appear to have hampered the administration’s efforts to persuade Riyadh to increase its oil production. Biden has clearly calculated that it is worth making a controversial visit to restore relations, though many progressives disagree.
- Opening of the consulate in Jerusalem Biden has promised a much more positive reset in relations with the Palestinians, including a key pledge to reopen the US consulate in Jerusalem that served as the US diplomatic mission to the Palestinian Authority until Trump closed it in 2019.
However, leaders of Israel’s fragile coalition (which recently collapsed) warned the Biden administration that reopening the consulate would be a political bombshell in Israel and help restore former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to power.
Biden has taken a number of steps to restore aid to the Palestinians and rebuild a relationship that took a hit under Trump, but left the consulate commitment unfulfilled. The Palestinian leadership has very low expectations for Biden’s visit to the occupied West Bank tomorrow.
One promise Biden didn’t make was progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
The process that occupied so many of Biden’s predecessors is completely at a standstill, largely because of Israeli politics. It was barely on Biden’s agenda in Israel and was addressed only in vague terms in Thursday’s “Jerusalem Declaration” on US-Israel relations.
What’s next: After meetings with Israeli leaders on Thursday and Palestinian leaders on Friday, Biden will fly to Saudi Arabia to meet the king and crown prince and attend a summit with regional leaders. What to watch: The Israeli government on Thursday approved the parameters of a deal surrounding two strategic Red Sea islands that will pave the way for Saudi Arabia to take steps toward normalizing relations with Israel, according to Axios’ Barak Ravid .
