Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images President Joe Biden is traveling to Saudi Arabia this week as part of his first trip to the Middle East as commander-in-chief. He is moving forward with a list of goals, including energy security, rapprochement with the Saudis and Israel, promoting a ceasefire in Yemen and creating a more cohesive regional front against Iran. But it’s a controversial move for this president, and no one is really sure how much it will actually achieve. The planned visit has drawn much criticism, from both the right and the left, that it was what some are calling an “embarrassing” climb and that it revealed a clear reversal from the tough anti-kingdom rhetoric that Biden had used during of his candidacy and in the first months of his presidency.
Now, things are different. U.S. gasoline is the most expensive it’s ever been, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has dramatically tightened global oil supplies, and Biden really, really wants Saudi Arabia and Israel to be friends. So will the trip look like an awkward apology or a reset for two countries with mutual interests? “I wouldn’t go. I wouldn’t shake his hand,” Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said in an interview in June when asked about the president’s planned meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He then referred to the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which the government blamed on the crown prince. The Saudi government has repeatedly denied the accusation. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends the G20 Leaders’ Summit via video conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on October 30, 2021. Royal Court of Saudi Arabia | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images During his 2019 election campaign, Biden promised to treat the kingdom of Saudi Arabia as “the outcast that it is” and as president has been highly critical of human rights abuses in the country. He also insisted on seeing Saudi Arabia’s King Salman as his counterpart, rather than the 36-year-old crown prince, who runs the kingdom’s day-to-day affairs. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in March reportedly refused to take a call from Biden as the US leader asked Gulf states to increase oil production following a ban on Russian oil imports. And in an early March interview with The Atlantic, when asked if he thought Biden misunderstood him, the crown prince replied, “I just don’t care. It’s up to him to think about America’s interests.”

A “welcome reset”

It seems that Biden went so far as to put those interests above what was perhaps a more idealistic narrative. On Saturday, the president published an op-ed in the Washington Post titled “Why I’m Going to Saudi Arabia.” In it, he asserted that “from the beginning, my goal has been to reorient – but not break – relations with a country that has been a strategic partner for 80 years.” He stressed the importance of the US-Saudi relationship for stability in the region and for American interests.
Biden is hardly the first president to run on a platform of “human rights will be central to my foreign policy,” only to find himself in office confronted with the realities of the Middle East. Hussein Ibish Senior Scholar-in-Residence, Institute of Arab Gulf States in Washington Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the kingdom’s royal court, sees the Biden visit as a boost to damaged relations. “I think the mistake the Biden administration made was that they took the rhetoric of the campaign into the administration” and “hit a wall of realism,” he told CNBC. The visit, he said, “is a reset. And I think it’s a welcome reset. Because the relationship is important for the kingdom as well. And they would like those clouds to pass.” “I think because of the visit to the kingdom he puts that behind him and that allows things to go back to where they were with America in the past,” Shihabi added. Biden says human rights will continue to be high on his agenda. But many observers say that is unlikely, given the other security and energy interests at stake. “Biden is hardly the first president to run on a platform of ‘human rights will be central to my foreign policy,’ only to find himself in office confronted with the realities of the Middle East,” said Hussein Ibish, a senior scholar in Arab. Gulf States Institute in Washington. The Saudi Foreign Ministry and the White House did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

Oil and Israel

Biden has played down what many analysts say is his administration’s desperate need to see the Saudis and OPEC members pump more oil in order to ease gas prices for Americans. “If it weren’t for the war in Ukraine, the tightening of the oil market and the spike in oil prices, there would be no rapprochement with Saudi Arabia,” Martin Indyk, a former U.S. diplomat and member of the Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview. with the Financial Times. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump and United Arab Emirates (UAE) Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed present copies of their signed agreements as they participate in the signing ceremony of the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and some of its Middle Eastern neighbors, in a strategic realignment of Middle Eastern countries against Iran, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, U.S., September 15, 2020. Tom Brenner | Reuters But Biden has largely rejected that, stressing Israel’s security as a top priority. The trip “is about national security for them — for the Israelis,” he told reporters in June. This could be an attempt to shift the narrative to an issue more broadly supported in Washington: Republicans and a majority of Democrats support Israeli-Arab normalization. The fact that Biden will fly from Israel directly to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, is a small sign of progress toward that goal. The Biden administration is also pushing for more military interoperability between Israel and Arab states to form a single US-led coalition that would create greater leverage against Iran. However, any overt involvement is highly unlikely, as security cooperation between the kingdom and Israel likely continues “behind the scenes” as it has for several years, according to Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal MENA analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.

What does Saudi Arabia want?

While critics said the meeting would put the ball squarely in the Saudis’ court, there are some things the kingdom desperately wants from the U.S. — chiefly, an ironclad security guarantee. “Improved air defense,” Shihabi said. “Air defense is absolutely critical to the importance of the entire peninsula, the entire GCC, and I think that’s where Biden can make a big difference. A more formal commitment of resources to secure GCC airspace would be the big ask. .” An Aramco oil depot was engulfed in flames after a missile attack claimed by Yemen’s Houthis. The strike took place on the eve of the Saudi Arabian F1 Grand Prix at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit. Peter J Fox | Getty Images Biden angered the Saudis when he withdrew US Patriot missile batteries and other advanced military systems from Saudi Arabia last year, even as the kingdom was hit by missiles and rockets from Yemen’s Houthi rebels and other Iran-backed groups.

“Unlikely to lead to breakthrough”

Despite having many or common interests, Biden may fail to make a breakthrough in relationships, Verisk Maplecroft’s Soltvedt says. “US calls for Saudi Arabia to increase the rate of oil production have fallen on deaf ears. This is unlikely to change,” he said. Biden advisers also spoke of Saudi Arabia’s commitment to remain fully aligned with the US vis-à-vis Russia and China. But some warn that the outreach effort will fall short. “There is little suggestion that Biden’s strategy of showering the Saudi crown prince … with concessions will produce a sustainable Saudi and Emirati commitment to the US side of this century’s great power rivalry,” Trita Parsi, co-founder of Quincy Institute. for Responsible Statecraft, he wrote in an article for MSNBC. He argued that a military commitment to protect the Saudis and other Gulf allies is not in US interests. U.S. military personnel stand next to an M142 High Mobility Artillery Missile System (HIMARS) during Saudi Arabia’s first World Defense Expo, north of the capital Riyadh, on March 6, 2022. Fayez Nureldine | Afp | Getty Images “Committing American lives to defend these Arab dictatorships is far more scandalous than an embarrassing presidential handshake with the Saudi crown prince,” Parsi said. “Biden will renege on promises to bring troops home from the Middle East, make Saudi Arabia pay a price and end the war in Yemen in one fell swoop.” But others argue that a strong relationship with the Saudi leadership, especially the crown prince, is vital to maintaining U.S. influence in the region — and the world. “Great power competition with China is not possible by walking away from the Gulf region and hoping for the best,” said Ibish of the Gulf Arab Institute. “Rather, it means continuous commitment.” “It is a reasonable partnership because of broad, shared mutual interests,” he added, “even though the values ​​are not shared or mutual in many cases.”