The BA.5 subvariant of the basic Omicron variant appears to be more contagious than any previous form of the virus. It’s apparently better at avoiding our antibodies, which means it may be more likely to cause recurrent infections. Vaccines and boosters are still the best defense. There are even Omicron-specific booster vaccines in development that, in the coming months, could make the best vaccines more effective against BA.5 and its genetic cousins. However, BA.5’s ongoing adventure halfway across the planet is a powerful reminder that the COVID pandemic is far from over. “We’re not done yet, by any means,” Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California, wrote on Substack. High levels of at least partial immunity from vaccines and previous infections still prevent the worst outcomes—mass hospitalization and death. However, globally, the raw numbers of cases are increasing, with serious implications for potentially millions of people who face an increased risk of long-term illness. Equally worrying, the latest wave of infections is giving the coronavirus the time and space it needs to mutate into even more dangerous variants and sub-variants. “The development of variants now is a freight train,” Irwin Redlener, the founding director of Columbia University’s National Disaster Preparedness Center, told The Daily Beast. That is, unstoppable. BA.5 first appeared in virus samples in South Africa in February. By May it was dominant in Europe and Israel, displacing earlier forms of the basic Omicron variant, while also leading to an increase in global daily COVID cases from around 477,000 per day in early June to 820,000 per day this week. In late June, the BA.5 became mainstream in the United States. Cases haven’t picked up yet—the daily average has hovered around 100,000 since May. But that could change in the coming weeks as BA.5 continues to compete against less contagious subs. Topol offered a succinct explanation for BA.5’s superiority. Where the mutations that produced many previous variants mainly affected the spike protein—the part of the virus that helps it grab onto and infect our cells—BA.5 has mutations all over its structure. “The BA.5 is quite distinctive and very suitable, representing a significant difference from all previous variants,” wrote Topol. Widespread mutations of BA.5 have made the subvariant less recognizable in all those antibodies we have generated from vaccines, boosters, and past infections. BA.5 was able to evade our immune system, ninja-style, contributing to the increasing rate of cases and reinfections. This comes as no surprise to epidemiologists who have warned for months that the persistently high case rates – which they attribute in part to a stubborn anti-drug minority in many countries – would facilitate increasingly infectious and evasive variants and sub-variants. The more infections, the more chance for significant mutations. A young child receives a Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at Temple Beth Shalom in Needham, Mass., on June 21, 2022.

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In that sense, BA5 can be a preview of the coming months and years. A year ago, we had the opportunity to eliminate the main vectors of SARS-CoV-2 through vaccines and social distancing. But we didn’t. Restrictions on businesses, schools and crowds have become politically toxic around the world. Vaccination rates have remained stubbornly low, even in many countries with easy access to vaccines. In the US, for example, the fully vaccinated rate has stalled at around 67 percent. So, COVID remains, 31 months after the first case was diagnosed in Wuhan, China. The longer the virus circulates, the more variants it produces. BA.5 is the only inevitable result of this tragic dynamic. The situation is not entirely hopeless. Yes, BA.5 appears to reduce the effectiveness of the best messenger-RNA vaccines. Vaccine maker Moderna has released data showing that a booster vaccine being developed specifically for Omicron and its progeny is only a third as effective against BA.5 as compared to previous sub-variants. But vaccines, boosters, and past infections still provide substantial, if reduced, protection against BA.5. “Even an amplification of the original genome or a recent infection will do it [produce] some cross-protective antibodies to reduce the severity of a new Omicron subvariable infection,” Eric Bortz, a University of Alaska-Anchorage virologist and public health expert, told The Daily Beast. The more additional punctures you get on top of your course, the better protected you are. Arguably the best protection comes from two basic cuts of the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer or Moderna and some boosters. “Take your fourth shot!” Redlener said. The problem, in the United States, is that only people age 50 and older or with certain immune system disorders qualify for a second booster. And the U.S. Food and Drug Administration won’t say if or when it might approve second boosters for younger people. “I don’t have anything to share at this time,” an FDA spokesperson told the Daily Beast when asked about boosters for people under 50. A girl takes a COVID-19 test at a testing station on July 7, 2022, in Shanghai, China.

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It’s an obvious red tape. Up to one million booster doses are set to expire in the US, all due to a lack of takers. “A profound waste, which should be available to all people under the age of 50 looking for additional protection,” Topol wrote. To be fair, Pfizer and Moderna are both working on new boosters that they’ve tailored specifically for the Omicron subvariants. On June 30, an FDA advisory panel approved these variant-specific enhancers. The FDA has announced that it may approve them for emergency use for some Americans as early as this fall. However, there is a risk that these jabs appear too late, especially if they are highly optimized for a single recent subvariable and therefore ineffective against future subvariables. “Variation hunting is a flawed approach,” Topol wrote. “Until a BA.5 vaccine booster is potentially available, who knows what the dominant strain will be?” Fortunately, there are relapses. Masks and voluntary social distancing, of course. Post-infection treatments, including the antiviral drug paxlovid, also help. “It is not time to abandon non-pharmacological intervention,” Redlener stressed. But voluntary mask use and paxlovid are robbers in a globalized wound. The increase in BA.5 infections sets the stage for the next major subvariant — BA.6, if you will. It could be even worse. It’s looking increasingly likely that COVID will be with us, well, forever. “Covid is becoming like the flu,” Ali Mokdad, a professor of health measurement sciences at the University of Washington Health Institute, told the Daily Beast. Endemic that is. A constant threat to public health. The big difference, of course, is that COVID is much more dangerous than today’s flu. And it continues to mutate in ways that make it even worse.