Comment NUSA DUA, Indonesia — In the nearly five months since Russia invaded Ukraine, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken has maintained the same stance toward Moscow: Don’t get involved. The top US diplomat has not had a single meeting or phone call with a senior Russian official throughout the conflict – a cold-shoulder strategy that continued over the weekend at a gathering of foreign ministers from the world’s 20 largest economies in Indonesia, where the Russian his counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, was sometimes in the same room with him. “The problem is this,” Blinken told reporters at a news conference Saturday. “We see no sign that Russia is ready to engage in meaningful diplomacy.” Some veteran diplomats say the lack of contact is a mistake, given the vast array of United States interests that concern Moscow. The war in Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians, sent world food and energy prices skyrocketing and raised military tensions between Russia and NATO to new heights. The United States is also seeking the return of high-profile American detainees from Russia, including WNBA star Brittney Griner and Marine Corps veteran Paul Whelan. “The first step is opening channels of communication where you can gauge what your adversary is looking for,” said Tom Shannon, a former senior State Department official with three decades of government experience. “You can’t know unless you try.” Maps of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Blinken has not spoken to Lavrov since January and chose not to meet him at the Bali resort despite their physical proximity here. The avoidance came as the Group of 20 host urged her fellow diplomats to begin talks to find a solution to the conflict. “It is our responsibility to end the war sooner rather than later and settle our differences at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield,” Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said in a keynote address. US officials offered several reasons for not participating, including concern that it would be seen as inappropriate as the Kremlin engages in a brutal war and a suspicion that failed efforts by other countries, including France, Turkey and Israel, to engage Moscow . it would only repeat itself. “Many other countries have engaged with Russia in recent months and are reporting the same thing: no indication that Russia is ready to engage in diplomacy,” Blinken said. Critics say meetings between Russian officials and foreign allies provide a poor comparison. “If the United States is not present, it’s not a serious discussion in the minds of the Russians,” said Jeremy Shapiro, a Europe scholar and former Obama administration official. “This should come as no surprise: The United States provides the vast majority of aid to Ukraine and is the leader of the Western coalition.” Shannon said changes in the momentum of the war could open up diplomatic opportunities. The United States should test Russia’s appetite for an off-ramp as the conflict unfolds, he said. “What happened is we let a period of maximum leverage slip,” he said. “We had the Russians on the run when they were in northern Ukraine trying to take Kyiv and they suffered heavy casualties,” he said. “Since then, they have corrected this situation: by moving the battle to the east and fighting largely through artillery.” “You want to talk in these phases,” he added. ‘He’s in hell’: Hail of Russian artillery tests Ukraine’s morale Talking to the Kremlin in the midst of a crisis has precedent, from the Cold War to more recent conflicts. During the George W. Bush administration, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met with Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, a month after Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Secretary of State John F. Kerry of President Barack Obama, spoke frequently with Lavrov after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and sparked an insurgency in eastern Ukraine. “Being in a room with John Kerry is no favor to anybody,” Shapiro said. “It’s an old State Department joke, but it’s an important point. The secretary of state’s job is to talk to friends and foes to see what can be done through negotiation.” Some US officials argue that Lavrov’s relative weakness in the Russian system makes him an insignificant negotiating partner. But advocates of engagement say they miss the point of the talks. “It is true that Lavrov is not a decision-maker, but he is a conduit that faithfully reflects the Kremlin’s position,” Shapiro said. “You wouldn’t meet with Lavrov to seal the deal, but if you want to find out where the Russians are or send a subtle message to Putin, he’s your guy.” Russia’s frustration at being excluded from the talks seems obvious, although officials in Moscow are reluctant to admit it. Last month, Russia’s ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, was overheard by a Politico reporter bemoaning his lack of contact with American officials while dining at a popular Washington restaurant. In Indonesia, Lavrov dismissed the idea that he was upset, but made it clear that the lack of dialogue was beyond his control. “It wasn’t us that cut off all contacts, it was the United States,” he said on Friday. “We don’t run after anyone who suggests meetings. If they don’t want to talk, that’s their choice.” Although a wide range of nations at the G-20 strongly supported the dialogue, many made it clear that they blamed Russia for starting the war and exacerbating global food and energy insecurity. Africa’s Desperate Famine: War in Ukraine Pushes Somalia to Famine “The vast majority of delegates are critical of Russia,” said a Western official present at the closed-door meetings, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive talks. “A minority of representatives were more equal[-handed].” The presence of Russia and its friendlier partners, such as China, India and South Africa, resulted in the meeting ending without a joint communique expressing common goals. The “family photo”, a trademark of G-20 events with matching shirts, was also scrapped due to strong discord within the group. Proponents of engagement concede that it provides no guarantee that Russia will seek a settlement of the war, especially as the battlefield momentum shifts to Russian forces, which have seized all of the eastern Luhansk region in recent days. While Blinken keeps his distance, other US officials have had little engagement with Moscow. In March, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke by phone with his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev. In May, the top US military officer, General Mark A. Milley, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke by phone with their Russian counterparts about security-related issues. However, the scope of the military talks was limited and not designed to negotiate an end to the conflict. Blinken, who often defends the power of diplomacy, said he would jump at the chance if he sensed Russian sincerity. “If we see any signs that Russia is really ready to engage in real diplomacy and end this war, of course, we will engage in that,” he said on Saturday. Others said there is only one way to find out. “The very basis of international negotiation is that you don’t show signs of compromising until you’re at the table making compromises,” Shapiro said. “You don’t compromise before you even start.”
