While the comfortable majority secured Sunday by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito could allow Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to rule uninterrupted until scheduled elections in 2025, Abe’s loss also opened a period of uncertainty for the his party. The promised constitutional amendment, for one, faced an uphill battle. In a country where gun crime is extremely rare, Abe’s shooting shocked the nation and Japanese flocked to a Buddhist temple on Monday to mourn their former leader as police investigated a possible motive. Kishida, meanwhile, welcomed his party’s victory but also acknowledged entering a new era without the towering politician, who even after stepping down as prime minister in 2020 remained a force in party and national politics. “Because we lost a great leader, we could undoubtedly be affected in many ways,” Kishida said. “Our party must come together as we face difficult issues.” Experts said Abe, a kingmaker and head of the party’s largest wing, had no clear successor and his absence could spark a power struggle among members of that faction. “Mr. Abe’s absence and his power in the party could give Mr. Kishida more leeway to take his own initiative,” said Koichi Nakano, a professor of international politics at Tokyo-based Sophia University. Kishida has enjoyed relatively high approval ratings for his effort to listen to the people. That proposed support could increase for his more moderate stance — and decrease for Abe’s more conservative approach, Nakano said. But he added that any major change in direction would be difficult for Kishida and would take time. Many of Japan’s current diplomatic and security policies, such as a stronger Japan-US alliance and a push for a free and open Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s rise, were set by Abe and remain unchanged, he said. Kishida said responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising prices will be his priorities. But he also vowed to push to strengthen Japan’s national security and amend the constitution, which only allows the country’s military to act in self-defense. Abe, along with some of the country’s ultraconservatives, saw the document written by the US in the wake of World War II as a humiliation and have long sought to give a greater international role to the country’s military, called the Self Defense Force. However, many in the public are more supportive of the document and see tackling the pandemic and rising costs of food, fuel and childcare as more pressing. “We will inherit his will and deal with the issues he had to leave unfulfilled,” Kishida said. To propose a constitutional amendment, both houses of parliament must support it with a two-thirds majority. Sunday’s vote gave the coalition led by the LDP and two opposition parties open to revising the map that margin in the upper house of parliament. Experts have argued that Abe’s assassination may have garnered his party some sympathy votes, and the ruling coalition alone now holds 146 of the House’s 248 seats. All four parties together control 179. This group of four parties also has the necessary seats in the more powerful Lower House. But it is far from clear: Komeito, the centrist party that is part of the governing coalition, says changing the article in the constitution that places restrictions on the military is unnecessary. Additionally, any amendment would need to secure majority support in a national referendum to pass. Abe, who stepped down as prime minister two years ago citing health reasons, said at the time that he regretted leaving many of his goals unfinished, including revising the constitution. On Monday night, a vigil was held for Abe at a Buddhist temple in central Tokyo, where Kishida and top former and current political leaders, as well as ordinary mourners, paid their respects. Some burst into tears. A funeral is planned at the church on Tuesday by his family. The government is expected to hold a separate memorial service later. Earlier in the day, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with Kishida to offer condolences and deliver a letter from President Joe Biden to Abe’s family. “We just want them to know that we feel the loss deeply and on a personal level,” Blinken told Kishida. “Mostly I’m here because the United States and Japan are more than allies — we’re friends.” Also on Monday, Taiwan’s Vice President Lai Ching-te paid his respects at Abe’s residence in Tokyo. Lai on Facebook called Abe “a good friend who loves and supports Taiwan.” Abe was known as a staunch supporter of Taiwan. Japan’s longest-serving political leader, Abe was the grandson of another prime minister and became the country’s youngest leader in 2006, aged 52. This term came to an abrupt end a year later, also due to his health. He returned to the prime ministership in 2012, pledging to revitalize the nation and pull its economy out of deflationary recession with the “Abenomics” formula, which combines fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms. He won six national elections and built a firm grip on power. On Sunday, the suspect charged with his murder was transferred to the local prosecutor’s office for further investigation. They can hold him for up to three weeks while they decide whether to press charges. Police said the suspect, Tetsuya Yamagami, told investigators he acted because of Abe’s rumored connection to an organization he resented. Some Japanese media identified the group as the Unification Church of South Korea and reported that the suspect’s mother donated large sums of money to the church. They suggested that her donations and subsequent bankruptcy were a possible motive. The church’s Japan branch acknowledged Monday that the suspect’s mother was a member, but denied soliciting large donations from anyone. Tomihiro Tanaka, head of the church, declined to comment on the details of the donations, saying the police investigation was ongoing. Speaking in general terms, he confirmed that some had made generous donations, but stressed that no one had been forced. Tanaka said Abe was not a member, although he supported the global peace movement.
