May 9, known as Russia’s “Victory Day,” commemorates the Russian defeat of the Nazis in 1945. Western officials have long believed that Putin would use the symbolic significance and propaganda value of that day to announce either a military achievement in Ukraine. large-scale escalation of hostilities – or both. Officials have begun sharpening a scenario, which is that Putin will officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9. To date, Russian officials have insisted that the conflict was only a “special military operation” with the central goal of “de-nitrification.” “I think he will try to get away from his ‘special operation,’” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told LBC Radio last week. Wallace added that he would not be surprised, and I have no information about that, that he would probably declare this May Day that “we are now at war with the Nazis of the world and we must mobilize the Russian people en masse.” More context: A formal declaration of war on May 9 could mobilize Russian citizens and raise public opinion about the invasion. Also under Russian law would allow Putin to mobilize reserve forces and recruit conscripts, whom officials say Russia desperately needs amid a growing shortage of manpower. Western and Ukrainian officials estimate that at least 10,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war since Russia invaded just over two months ago. Other options for May 9 include annexing the breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, pushing for Odessa in the south, or declaring full control of the southern port city of Mariupol. The United States has “extremely credible” reports that Russia will try to annex Luhansk and Donetsk “sometime in mid-May,” US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said on Monday. There are also indications that Russia could plan to declare and annex a “people’s democracy” in the southeastern city of Kherson. State Department spokesman Ned Price said Monday that there was “good reason to believe that the Russians will do whatever they can to use” May 9 for propaganda purposes. “We have seen the Russians really redouble their propaganda efforts, probably, almost certainly, as a means of distracting themselves from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Price told a State Department statement. Price added that he “saw speculation that Russia might formally declare war” on May 9 and said, “It would be a great irony if Moscow used the Victory Day opportunity to declare war, which in itself would allow her. to increase the number of conscripts in a way that they can not do now, in a way that would amount to revealing to the world that their war effort is failing, that they are faltering in their military campaign and military goals. “ “I’m sure we will hear more from Moscow by May 9,” Price added. “I’m sure you will hear more from the United States, from our partners, including our NATO partners, before May 9 as well.”
