McIlroy, who broke his eight-year drought at St. Andrews would be one of the biggest stories of the year in golf, especially given the way he has played in the majors so far this season with top-10 finishes at the Masters (2nd), the PGA Championship (8th) and the US Open (T5). A win for Hovland would cement his place among golf’s rising stars, adding him to a major championship season in 2022 that would feature all four winners under the age of 30. But what if the Claret Jug winner doesn’t come from the final pairing? What if someone makes a low number charge and both of our co-leaders fall back to the pack? So who has the best chance of catching McIlroy and Hovland on Sunday? Historically, the record for the final round comeback at The Open is held by Paul Lawrie from 10 shots behind to make a three-man playoff and eventually win. But the chances of McIlroy and/or Hovland hitting a three-shot lead on the 18th hole, as Jean van de Velde did at Carnoustie that year, seem unlikely. More recent and realistic examples of notable final round comebacks at The Open include Padraig Harrington winning by six strokes in 2007, Ernie Els winning by six in 2012 and Phil Mickelson winning by five in 2013. But none of them were in St. Andrews. The winner of each 72-hole edition of The Open played at St. Andrews was within four moves of the lead heading into the final he found, capturing the Claret Jug all 22 times, according to Justin Ray. As such, here are the five contenders who could potentially catch the 150th Open leaders on Sunday. Odds via Caesars Sportsbook Cameron Smith (-12): After two days of doing almost everything on the greens, Smith wasn’t hitting shots with the same consistency Saturday as the 54-hole league leader. Although he didn’t make as many birdies, Smith held his round together until collapsing a double bogey on No. 13. Those mistakes and errors didn’t cost him too many places on the leaderboard, but those two shots will have put him in much better position to catch the leaders. As it stands, he needs to not only shoot somewhere near 65 or 66, but hope that neither McIlroy nor Hovland shoot in the 60s. Odds: 11-1 Cameron Young (-12): One of the PGA Tour’s hottest rookies produced an impressive performance in his Open debut, including how he salvaged a 1-under 71 despite two bogeys and a double bogey from his spot in final pair. After a 64 on Thursday, a 69 on Friday and then a 71 on Saturday, it would be remarkable to see him reverse the trend and return to that early tournament form. But that’s usually not the case, especially with players at the beginning of their long careers. Odds: 25-1 Scottie Scheffler (-11): A strong 3-under 69 moved the reigning Masters champion up one spot on the leaderboard and a little closer to being able to claim a second major championship in this stunning 2022 season. Scheffler had his best day in the tournament so far in terms of hitting approach shots on those Old Course greens, and it paid off to make five birdies on the day. Scheffler is a high-end proposition where you can almost count on a 68 or 69 on Sunday, but that score would leave him out of the Claret Jug unless Rory and Hovland shoot over the top. Si Woo Kim sits at 11 under with Scheffler, but has never had a top-10 finish in 22 major starts. Odds: 20-1 Dustin Johnson (-10): With length driving the green on short par-4s and a knack for lagging, St. Andrews seemed set up well for Johnson to claim his third major championship. Unfortunately, those efforts unraveled on Saturday afternoon as DJ had as many bogeys in his final six holes (three) as in the first two rounds combined. He has the potential to go very low on Sunday, but the way he was battered by the hills and bunkers of the Old Course late in the third round does not bode well for an epic comeback. Odds: 50-1
Last Chance Picks at the Open Championship 2022
Kyle Porter, senior golf writer: There are myriad reasons why McIlroy will win his 150th Open. He did an unimaginably good job of not letting himself get carried away emotionally during an extremely emotional week. His game is as polished as it was last year, and he’s scoring to prove it. The St. Andrews is a magical place and Rory winning the same week that Tiger Woods walked off the stage just after two of the greatest wins in golf history on this course is so unlikely it seems like it could only happen at the Old Course. Pick: Rory McIlroy (10/11) Chip Patterson, writer: There’s no need to overthink this one: Even the data says there’s a slightly better than 50% chance McIlroy can pull ahead of Hovland and hold off the chase pack on Sunday. The confidence he’s shown all week fuels the analytics, and it’s time for a generational talent to be rewarded with yet another highlight in his Hall of Fame career. McIlroy has never finished in the top 10 of all four majors in one season, and he is poised to not only do that, but break his eight-year drought at St. Andrews. Pick: Rory McIlroy (10/11) Patrick MacDonald, golf writer: McIlroy is riding a wave of momentum and looks like he can do no wrong on the Old Course. This week was a throwback to 2014 where he often played with the perfect combination of aggression and discipline. Eight years later, he would lift the Claret Jug again and join Seve Ballesteros and Byron Nelson as a five-time major champion. Pick: Rory McIlroy (10/11) Kyle Boone, Author: How Back is Too Back? Is five strokes — in these conditions, on this course, with this star-studded leaderboard — too many? No winner of an Open held at St. Andrews hasn’t won after more than four moves at the 54-hole mark, according to Justin Ray. However, it somehow seems plausible in relation to Scheffler. After watching Justin Thomas dig out of a seven-under hole entering Round 4 at the PGA Championship in May, Scheffler making a charge to take the Claret Jug on Sunday doesn’t seem impossible. He’s played well all week, ranks second in the field in strokes gained on approach and has the upside to mount a huge rally if his putter starts rolling. Pick: Scotty Scheffler (20-1) Adam Silverstein, managing editor: Just because he stopped winning doesn’t mean McIlroy has struggled to play well in the majors. Since 2014, he has 16 top 10s in 30 such chances with three of those coming this year alone. The problem is that McIlroy usually either gets off to a slow start or drops a low score in Round 1, often coming through the back door. That’s not the case this week as McIlroy remains consistently hot with scores of 66-68-66 through the first three rounds. Rory clearly has the par-court advantage at St. Andrews — the crowd is emotionally invested in his success — yet he was able to block it and play calm, smart golf. What better way to end an eight-year drought than to win the 150th Open? Pick: Rory McIlroy (10/11) Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme take a look at the odds table for Sunday’s Open Championship. Follow and listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
